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KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 10 · 10:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
97%
HRES
96%
WN2
75%
ICON
72%
EPS
49%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 73.2¢Risks 73.25u
VS
EPSNO 26.8¢Risks 26.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.75u · EPS −26.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.0% · 2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.0% · 2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.0% · 2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.0% · 2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.0% · 2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00IFS HRES: 96.1% · 2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00IFS HRES: 96.1% · 2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00IFS HRES: 96.1% · 2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00IFS HRES: 96.1% · 2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00IFS HRES: 96.1% · 2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:0009-10 07:4009-10 09:1109-10 10:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:0097.4%49.1%75.0%96.1%72.0%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:0097.4%49.1%75.0%96.1%72.0%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:0097.4%49.1%75.0%96.1%72.0%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:0097.4%49.1%75.0%96.1%72.0%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:0097.4%49.1%75.0%96.1%72.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single97%89.2°F5.5°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
IFS HRES96%89.3°F6.1°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%81.9°F5.0°F2026-09-09 18:00Pending
ICON72%84.2°F9.8°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
National Blend55%79.4°F6.7°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble49%78.4°F4.4°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 79°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗