KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 12 · 14:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

96%

89%

47%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.0¢Risks 72.95u

AIFSNO 27.0¢Risks 27.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.05u · AIFS −27.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	14.1%	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	61.8%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	25.7%	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	55.4%	40.0%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	47.9%	19.4%	54.9%	14.1%	73.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	46.4%	82.5%	57.3%	—	64.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	89.0%	97.2%	67.0%	—	78.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	97.2%	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	96.2%	66.3%	94.7%	—	90.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	57.3%	89.0%	—	—	84.7%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	90.3%	25.8%	78.1%	—	87.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	91.2%	95.3%	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	10.1%	26.2%	—	94.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	44.6%	33.4%	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	51.8%	—	91.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	47.2%	44.3%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	86.9%	81.7%	33.9%	—	93.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	72.6%	72.6%	—	—	89.5%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	60.2%	70.6%	30.3%	4.2%	92.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	42.6%	58.4%	—	—	94.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	19.0%	45.6%	15.5%	20.6%	86.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	48.9%	66.4%	2.9%	—	87.1%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	31.0%	96.9%	44.2%	—	79.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	26.3%	96.9%	16.7%	—	80.1%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	26.6%	84.9%	37.7%	14.4%	92.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	33.7%	42.3%	41.0%	—	80.9%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	40.7%	93.0%	20.0%	4.3%	76.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	41.7%	51.4%	44.4%	—	75.8%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	52.9%	95.3%	76.6%	22.2%	82.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	35.2%	97.8%	77.6%	—	88.8%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	25.0%	91.7%	60.9%	19.2%	80.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	40.2%	63.0%	45.1%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	84.0°F	1.9°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	97%	90.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	86.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	88.5°F	7.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	81.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	79.1°F	5.0°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗