KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 12 · 14:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

96%

89%

47%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.0¢Risks 72.95u

AIFSNO 27.0¢Risks 27.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.05u · AIFS −27.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T03:13:34+00:00	92.4%	58.9%	90.1%	96.9%	64.7%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	92.4%	58.9%	90.1%	96.9%	64.7%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	92.4%	58.9%	90.1%	96.9%	65.1%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	92.4%	58.9%	93.0%	96.9%	65.1%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	92.4%	58.9%	93.0%	96.9%	65.1%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	92.4%	58.9%	93.0%	96.9%	65.1%
2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00	91.6%	58.9%	93.0%	37.6%	65.1%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	91.6%	58.9%	93.0%	37.6%	65.1%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	91.6%	58.9%	93.0%	37.6%	65.1%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	91.6%	58.9%	93.0%	37.6%	65.1%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	91.6%	58.9%	93.0%	37.6%	65.1%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	91.6%	79.5%	95.6%	37.6%	65.1%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	91.6%	79.5%	95.6%	37.6%	65.1%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	91.6%	79.5%	95.6%	37.6%	65.1%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	65.9%	79.5%	95.6%	37.6%	65.1%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	65.9%	83.3%	95.6%	37.6%	65.0%
2026-09-12T03:17:41+00:00	41.1%	81.2%	95.4%	35.4%	92.0%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	41.1%	81.2%	95.4%	35.4%	92.0%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	41.1%	81.2%	95.4%	35.4%	92.0%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	41.1%	81.2%	92.1%	35.4%	92.0%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	41.1%	81.2%	92.1%	35.4%	92.0%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	41.1%	81.2%	92.1%	35.4%	92.0%
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	69.1%	81.2%	92.1%	93.8%	97.4%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	69.1%	81.2%	92.1%	93.8%	97.4%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	69.1%	81.2%	92.1%	93.8%	97.4%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	69.1%	81.2%	92.1%	93.8%	97.4%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	69.1%	81.2%	92.1%	93.8%	97.4%
2026-09-12T11:34:04+00:00	69.1%	99.1%	95.7%	93.8%	97.4%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	69.1%	99.1%	95.7%	93.8%	97.4%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	69.1%	99.1%	95.7%	93.8%	97.4%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	46.8%	99.1%	95.7%	93.8%	97.4%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	46.8%	99.1%	95.7%	88.8%	97.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	84.0°F	1.9°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	97%	90.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	86.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	88.5°F	7.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	81.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	79.1°F	5.0°F	2026-09-12 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 11 · 03:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗