KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Sep 17 · 09:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

59%

57%

34%

12%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.7¢Risks 50.65u

ICONNO 49.3¢Risks 49.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.35u · ICON −49.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	8.6%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	49.4%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	16.4%	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	41.9%	27.7%	—	—	38.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	34.3%	11.2%	40.9%	7.7%	61.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	32.3%	71.5%	42.7%	—	50.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	80.0%	93.7%	52.3%	—	65.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	93.7%	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	91.6%	50.8%	88.9%	—	81.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	41.1%	79.3%	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	81.0%	14.3%	63.9%	—	76.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	82.2%	89.3%	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	4.3%	14.1%	—	87.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	27.9%	19.0%	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	33.9%	—	81.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	29.2%	26.9%	—	—	81.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	73.7%	66.1%	18.3%	—	85.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	54.0%	54.0%	—	—	77.4%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	39.8%	51.0%	15.1%	1.2%	83.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	23.6%	37.5%	—	—	85.6%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	7.7%	25.5%	5.9%	8.5%	71.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	27.6%	44.4%	0.7%	—	71.4%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	14.0%	90.0%	23.3%	—	59.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	10.8%	89.8%	5.8%	—	59.5%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	10.6%	65.8%	17.4%	4.6%	80.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	14.3%	20.0%	19.1%	—	59.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	18.2%	79.0%	6.5%	0.9%	51.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	18.2%	25.3%	20.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	25.6%	82.8%	50.0%	6.8%	58.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	12.8%	89.5%	50.0%	—	67.5%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	7.1%	72.4%	30.3%	4.8%	53.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	14.1%	30.9%	17.0%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	85.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	82.2°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	82.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	80.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	77.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 11 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗