KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Sep 17 · 09:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

34%

30%

18%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.4¢Risks 39.40u

ICONNO 60.6¢Risks 60.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.60u · ICON −60.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	4.8%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	37.0%	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	9.6%	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	29.4%	17.6%	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	22.4%	5.8%	28.1%	3.8%	47.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	20.4%	58.0%	29.1%	—	35.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	67.7%	87.5%	37.2%	—	50.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	87.2%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	83.7%	35.2%	79.4%	—	69.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	26.3%	65.9%	—	—	58.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	67.8%	6.9%	47.5%	—	62.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	68.9%	79.2%	—	—	63.4%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	1.6%	6.5%	—	75.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	15.0%	9.2%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	19.0%	—	66.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	15.4%	13.7%	—	—	65.7%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	55.8%	47.1%	8.2%	—	71.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	34.4%	34.4%	—	—	59.9%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	21.9%	31.2%	6.1%	0.3%	67.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	10.6%	19.8%	—	—	70.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	2.4%	11.4%	1.7%	2.8%	51.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	12.3%	24.0%	0.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	4.8%	75.8%	9.4%	—	36.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	3.3%	74.7%	1.5%	—	35.9%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	3.0%	41.3%	5.9%	1.0%	58.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.3%	6.8%	6.4%	—	33.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	5.7%	55.4%	1.4%	0.1%	26.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	5.4%	8.6%	6.2%	—	24.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	8.3%	58.6%	23.4%	1.3%	30.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	2.9%	68.9%	22.4%	—	38.1%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.2%	42.1%	9.6%	0.7%	23.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.8%	9.2%	3.7%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	85.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	82.2°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	82.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	80.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	77.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗