KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

22%

21%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.0¢Risks 14.00u

EPSNO 86.0¢Risks 86.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +86.00u · EPS −86.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	10.1%	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	5.9%	2.6%	—	—	5.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	3.5%	0.4%	5.1%	0.2%	13.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	2.7%	18.4%	4.9%	—	7.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	24.5%	50.0%	7.0%	—	12.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	48.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	41.3%	5.7%	35.2%	—	24.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.1%	20.7%	—	—	15.3%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	21.3%	0.3%	9.3%	—	17.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	21.4%	31.9%	—	—	17.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	0.0%	0.2%	—	26.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.9%	0.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	1.2%	—	16.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	0.7%	0.6%	—	—	15.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.4%	6.2%	0.2%	—	18.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.8%	2.8%	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.0%	2.1%	0.1%	0.0%	13.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.2%	0.7%	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	5.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.8%	0.0%	—	4.5%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	14.7%	0.1%	—	1.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	12.6%	0.0%	—	1.5%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	4.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.7%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	28%	86.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	86.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	86.5°F	3.6°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	84.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	1%	80.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.7°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗