KPIT / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

22%

21%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.0¢Risks 14.00u

EPSNO 86.0¢Risks 86.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +86.00u · EPS −86.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	6.6%	48.7%	29.4%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	6.6%	48.7%	29.4%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	6.6%	48.7%	29.4%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	6.6%	48.7%	29.4%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	6.6%	48.7%	29.4%
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00	47.8%	1.6%	4.7%	48.7%	29.4%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00	47.8%	1.6%	4.7%	48.7%	29.4%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00	47.8%	1.6%	4.7%	48.7%	29.4%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00	60.7%	1.6%	4.7%	48.7%	29.4%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00	60.7%	1.6%	4.8%	48.7%	29.8%
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00	60.7%	1.6%	4.8%	48.7%	29.8%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00	60.7%	1.6%	4.8%	48.7%	29.8%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00	60.7%	1.6%	4.8%	48.7%	26.0%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00	60.7%	1.6%	10.7%	48.7%	26.0%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00	60.7%	1.6%	10.7%	48.7%	26.0%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00	60.7%	1.6%	10.7%	48.7%	26.0%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00	67.5%	1.6%	10.7%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00	67.5%	1.6%	10.7%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00	67.5%	1.6%	10.7%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00	67.5%	1.6%	10.7%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00	67.5%	1.6%	10.7%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-10T23:28:03+00:00	67.5%	1.6%	20.5%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00	67.5%	1.6%	20.5%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00	67.5%	1.5%	20.5%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00	35.2%	1.1%	20.5%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00	35.2%	1.1%	20.5%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-11T03:13:34+00:00	35.2%	1.1%	20.5%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	35.2%	1.1%	20.5%	59.7%	26.0%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	35.2%	1.1%	20.5%	59.7%	13.5%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	35.2%	1.1%	26.3%	59.7%	13.5%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	35.2%	1.1%	26.3%	59.7%	13.5%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	35.2%	1.1%	26.3%	59.7%	13.5%
2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00	31.4%	1.1%	26.3%	3.5%	13.5%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	31.4%	1.1%	26.3%	3.5%	13.5%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	31.4%	1.1%	26.3%	3.5%	13.5%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	31.4%	1.1%	26.3%	3.5%	13.5%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	31.4%	1.1%	26.3%	3.5%	13.5%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	31.4%	0.9%	29.5%	3.5%	13.5%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	31.4%	0.9%	29.5%	3.5%	13.5%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	31.4%	0.9%	29.5%	3.5%	13.5%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	7.3%	0.9%	29.5%	3.5%	13.5%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	7.3%	1.2%	29.5%	3.5%	13.7%
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	29.5%	3.5%	13.7%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	29.5%	3.5%	13.7%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	29.5%	3.5%	47.1%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	27.2%	3.5%	47.1%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	27.2%	3.5%	47.1%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	7.3%	0.8%	27.2%	3.5%	47.1%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	4.3%	0.8%	27.2%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	4.3%	0.8%	27.2%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	4.3%	0.8%	27.2%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	4.3%	0.8%	27.2%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-11T22:47:02+00:00	4.3%	0.8%	27.2%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	4.3%	0.8%	28.8%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	4.3%	0.8%	28.8%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	4.3%	0.8%	28.8%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	28.8%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	28.8%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T03:17:41+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	28.8%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	28.8%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	28.8%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	20.3%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	20.3%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	1.8%	0.8%	20.3%	3.0%	47.1%
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	6.7%	0.8%	20.3%	43.2%	58.2%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	6.7%	0.8%	20.3%	43.2%	58.2%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	6.7%	0.8%	20.3%	43.2%	58.2%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	6.7%	0.8%	20.3%	43.2%	58.2%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	6.7%	0.8%	20.3%	43.2%	58.2%
2026-09-12T11:34:05+00:00	6.7%	0.2%	24.1%	43.2%	58.2%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	6.7%	0.2%	24.1%	43.2%	58.2%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	6.7%	0.2%	24.1%	43.2%	58.2%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	1.9%	0.2%	24.1%	43.2%	58.2%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	1.9%	0.2%	24.1%	44.6%	58.3%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	1.9%	0.4%	24.1%	43.2%	58.3%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	1.9%	0.4%	24.1%	43.2%	58.3%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	1.9%	0.4%	24.1%	43.2%	58.3%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	1.9%	0.4%	24.1%	43.2%	58.3%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	1.9%	0.4%	24.1%	43.2%	58.3%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	1.9%	0.4%	24.1%	43.2%	58.3%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	24.1%	43.2%	39.1%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	24.1%	43.2%	39.1%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	24.1%	43.2%	39.1%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	24.1%	43.2%	39.1%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	24.1%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	16.8%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	16.8%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	16.8%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	16.8%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	16.8%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	16.8%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	16.8%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	16.8%	0.4%	20.5%	23.6%	39.1%
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	40.8%	0.4%	20.5%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	40.8%	0.4%	20.5%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	40.8%	0.4%	20.5%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	40.8%	0.4%	20.5%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	40.8%	2.7%	25.1%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	40.8%	2.7%	25.1%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	40.8%	2.7%	25.1%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	40.8%	2.7%	25.1%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	32.8%	2.7%	25.1%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	32.8%	2.7%	25.1%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	32.8%	2.7%	25.1%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	32.8%	2.7%	25.1%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	32.8%	2.7%	19.8%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	32.8%	2.7%	19.8%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	32.8%	2.7%	19.8%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	32.8%	2.7%	19.8%	62.4%	21.5%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	27.7%	2.7%	19.8%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	27.7%	2.7%	19.8%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	27.7%	2.7%	19.8%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	27.7%	2.7%	19.8%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	27.7%	2.7%	20.5%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	27.7%	2.7%	20.5%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	27.7%	2.7%	20.5%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	27.7%	2.7%	20.5%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	26.9%	2.7%	20.5%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	26.9%	2.7%	20.5%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	26.9%	2.7%	20.5%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	26.9%	2.7%	20.5%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	26.9%	2.7%	21.2%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	26.9%	2.7%	21.2%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	26.9%	2.7%	21.2%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	26.9%	2.7%	21.2%	40.6%	21.5%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	8.1%	2.7%	21.2%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	8.1%	2.7%	21.2%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	8.1%	2.7%	21.2%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	8.1%	2.7%	21.2%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	21.2%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	21.2%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	21.2%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	21.2%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	5.7%	0.2%	21.3%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	5.7%	0.2%	21.3%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	5.7%	0.4%	21.3%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	5.7%	0.4%	21.3%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	5.7%	0.4%	14.3%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	5.7%	0.4%	14.3%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	5.7%	0.4%	14.3%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	5.7%	0.4%	14.3%	37.1%	9.9%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	24.3%	0.4%	14.3%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	24.3%	0.4%	14.3%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	24.3%	0.4%	14.3%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	24.3%	0.4%	14.3%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	24.3%	0.4%	16.9%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	24.3%	0.4%	16.9%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	24.3%	0.4%	16.9%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	24.3%	0.4%	16.9%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	21.5%	0.4%	16.9%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	21.5%	0.4%	16.9%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	21.5%	0.4%	16.9%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	21.5%	0.4%	16.9%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	21.5%	0.4%	20.6%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	21.5%	0.4%	20.6%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	21.5%	0.4%	20.6%	27.6%	1.4%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	21.5%	0.4%	20.6%	27.6%	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	28%	86.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	86.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	86.5°F	3.6°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	84.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	83.9°F	3.1°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	1%	80.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.7°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260917-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 10 · 07:40 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗