KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Sep 18 · 06:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

84%

81%

76%

37%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.9¢Risks 66.90u

ICONNO 33.1¢Risks 33.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.10u · ICON −33.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T03:17:41+00:00	84.0%	72.0%	96.8%	38.5%	54.1%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	84.0%	72.0%	96.8%	38.5%	54.1%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	84.0%	72.0%	96.8%	38.5%	54.1%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	84.0%	72.0%	92.9%	38.5%	54.1%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	84.0%	72.0%	92.9%	38.5%	54.1%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	84.0%	72.0%	92.9%	38.5%	54.1%
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	75.5%	72.0%	92.9%	97.9%	88.5%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	75.5%	72.0%	92.9%	97.9%	88.5%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	75.5%	72.0%	92.9%	97.9%	88.5%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	75.5%	72.0%	92.9%	97.9%	88.5%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	75.5%	72.0%	92.9%	97.9%	88.5%
2026-09-12T11:34:05+00:00	75.5%	90.2%	94.9%	97.9%	88.5%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	75.5%	90.2%	94.9%	97.9%	88.5%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	75.5%	90.2%	94.9%	97.9%	88.5%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	80.5%	90.2%	94.9%	97.9%	88.5%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	80.5%	90.2%	94.9%	94.6%	88.5%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	80.5%	89.2%	94.9%	98.0%	88.5%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	80.5%	89.2%	94.9%	98.0%	88.5%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	80.5%	89.2%	94.9%	98.0%	88.5%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	80.5%	89.2%	95.8%	98.0%	88.5%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	80.5%	89.2%	95.8%	98.0%	88.5%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	80.5%	89.2%	95.8%	98.0%	88.5%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	64.5%	89.2%	95.8%	98.0%	42.9%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	64.5%	89.2%	95.8%	98.0%	42.9%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	64.5%	89.2%	95.8%	98.0%	42.9%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	64.5%	89.2%	95.8%	98.0%	42.9%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	64.5%	89.2%	95.8%	93.0%	42.9%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	64.5%	89.2%	96.2%	93.0%	42.9%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	64.5%	89.2%	96.2%	93.0%	42.9%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	64.5%	89.2%	96.2%	93.0%	42.9%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	71.8%	89.2%	96.2%	93.0%	42.9%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	71.8%	89.2%	96.2%	93.0%	42.9%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	71.8%	89.2%	96.2%	93.0%	42.9%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	96.4%	45.2%	30.6%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	96.4%	45.2%	30.6%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	96.4%	45.7%	44.4%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	95.1%	45.7%	44.4%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	95.1%	45.7%	44.4%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	95.1%	45.7%	44.4%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	95.1%	60.3%	44.4%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	95.1%	60.3%	44.4%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	95.1%	60.3%	44.4%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	95.1%	60.3%	44.4%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	80.9%	70.6%	95.1%	60.3%	44.4%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	81.5%	70.6%	96.1%	61.4%	44.4%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	81.5%	70.6%	96.1%	61.4%	44.4%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	81.5%	70.6%	96.1%	61.4%	44.4%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	84.0%	70.6%	96.1%	61.4%	44.4%
2026-09-17T02:12:03+00:00	84.0%	70.6%	96.1%	61.4%	44.4%
2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00	83.5%	81.3%	96.4%	76.4%	23.1%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	83.5%	81.3%	96.4%	76.4%	23.1%
2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00	83.5%	81.3%	96.4%	76.4%	37.4%
2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00	83.5%	81.3%	96.4%	76.4%	37.4%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	83.5%	81.3%	96.4%	76.4%	37.4%
2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00	83.5%	81.3%	96.4%	76.4%	37.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	82.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	80.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	79.1°F	2.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	79.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	75.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗