KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Sep 18 · 06:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

84%

81%

76%

37%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.9¢Risks 66.90u

ICONNO 33.1¢Risks 33.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.10u · ICON −33.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	26.4%	—	—	63.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	0.8%	—	—	37.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	19.8%	—	31.2%	44.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	5.9%	27.1%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	29.8%	23.5%	34.3%	—	61.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	33.7%	74.0%	—	72.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	40.9%	60.6%	—	85.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	60.3%	50.0%	—	73.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	65.5%	—	60.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	65.0%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	86.9%	51.7%	—	67.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	32.6%	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	72.6%	49.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	32.6%	78.3%	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	51.0%	62.4%	64.3%	—	37.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	54.0%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	29.4%	58.2%	43.9%	—	37.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	43.7%	48.9%	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	36.1%	54.4%	63.9%	38.2%	40.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	32.6%	48.9%	2.7%	—	42.2%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	50.0%	57.0%	53.5%	19.1%	46.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	42.8%	54.8%	51.2%	—	48.8%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	36.5%	52.5%	46.3%	—	50.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	38.5%	34.9%	55.1%	—	48.7%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	34.3%	43.3%	59.3%	17.3%	51.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	45.8%	62.3%	43.1%	—	45.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	66.9%	50.0%	51.4%	17.2%	52.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	47.0%	32.5%	54.5%	—	45.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	45.3%	26.3%	59.4%	7.1%	51.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	54.9%	30.9%	51.6%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	82.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	80.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	79.1°F	2.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	79.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	75.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗