KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

77%

71%

68%

16%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.4¢Risks 54.45u

ICONNO 45.6¢Risks 45.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.55u · ICON −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	21.8%	—	—	58.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	15.6%	—	25.7%	37.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	4.2%	21.8%	—	—	46.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	24.1%	18.4%	28.1%	—	54.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	27.2%	67.7%	—	66.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	33.7%	53.0%	—	80.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	52.4%	42.1%	—	67.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	—	57.5%	—	52.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	56.8%	—	—	60.2%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	81.6%	43.0%	—	59.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	24.9%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	64.4%	40.0%	—	40.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	24.6%	70.8%	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	41.3%	52.9%	54.9%	—	28.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	44.0%	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	21.2%	47.9%	34.0%	—	28.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	33.5%	38.5%	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	26.4%	43.5%	53.3%	28.2%	30.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	23.1%	37.8%	1.4%	—	31.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	38.5%	45.4%	41.9%	12.1%	35.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	31.4%	42.8%	39.3%	—	37.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	25.6%	40.1%	34.2%	—	37.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	26.9%	23.8%	42.3%	—	36.1%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	23.0%	30.7%	46.0%	10.1%	38.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	32.5%	48.6%	30.0%	—	32.5%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	52.9%	35.8%	37.2%	9.5%	38.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	32.5%	20.2%	39.5%	—	31.1%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	30.3%	15.2%	43.7%	3.1%	36.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	38.6%	18.1%	35.5%	—	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	82.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	80.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	79.1°F	2.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	79.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	16%	73.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 13 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗