KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

77%

71%

68%

16%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.4¢Risks 54.45u

ICONNO 45.6¢Risks 45.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.55u · ICON −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	65.2%	83.5%	93.9%	90.7%	37.2%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	65.2%	83.5%	93.9%	90.7%	37.2%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	65.2%	83.5%	93.9%	90.7%	37.2%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	65.2%	83.5%	93.9%	90.7%	37.2%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	65.2%	83.5%	93.9%	90.7%	37.2%
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	58.7%	83.5%	93.9%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	58.7%	83.5%	93.9%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	58.7%	83.5%	93.9%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	58.7%	83.5%	93.9%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	58.7%	84.8%	91.2%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	58.7%	84.8%	91.2%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	58.7%	84.8%	91.2%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	58.7%	84.8%	91.2%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	63.3%	84.8%	91.2%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	63.3%	84.8%	91.2%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	63.3%	86.0%	91.2%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	63.3%	86.0%	91.2%	41.9%	50.7%
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	71.3%	86.0%	89.6%	60.1%	50.7%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	71.3%	86.0%	94.2%	60.1%	50.7%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	71.3%	86.0%	94.2%	60.1%	50.7%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	71.3%	86.0%	94.2%	60.1%	50.7%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	71.3%	86.0%	94.2%	60.1%	50.7%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	72.3%	86.0%	94.2%	69.6%	44.9%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	72.3%	86.0%	94.2%	69.6%	44.9%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	72.3%	86.0%	94.2%	69.6%	44.9%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	72.3%	86.0%	94.2%	69.6%	44.9%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	72.3%	84.1%	94.2%	69.6%	44.9%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	72.3%	84.1%	94.2%	69.6%	44.9%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	72.3%	84.1%	94.2%	69.6%	44.9%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	72.3%	84.1%	94.2%	69.6%	44.9%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	68.7%	84.1%	94.2%	69.6%	45.0%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	68.7%	84.1%	94.2%	69.6%	45.0%
2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00	72.1%	70.7%	96.4%	48.2%	44.9%
2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00	72.1%	70.7%	95.5%	48.2%	44.9%
2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00	72.1%	70.7%	95.5%	48.2%	44.9%
2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00	72.1%	70.7%	95.5%	48.2%	44.9%
2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00	72.1%	70.7%	95.5%	48.2%	44.9%
2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00	75.7%	70.7%	95.5%	48.2%	24.4%
2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00	75.7%	70.7%	95.5%	48.2%	24.4%
2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00	75.7%	70.7%	95.5%	48.2%	24.4%
2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00	75.7%	70.7%	95.5%	48.2%	24.4%
2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00	75.7%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00	75.7%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00	75.7%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00	75.7%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00	81.0%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00	81.0%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-16T03:36:09+00:00	81.0%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	81.0%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	81.0%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	81.0%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	81.0%	70.7%	94.0%	47.4%	24.4%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	73.8%	70.7%	94.0%	35.9%	21.5%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	73.8%	70.7%	94.0%	35.9%	21.5%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	73.8%	70.7%	94.0%	35.9%	21.5%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	73.8%	70.7%	94.0%	35.9%	21.5%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	73.8%	70.7%	94.0%	35.9%	21.5%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	73.8%	69.1%	93.4%	35.9%	21.5%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	73.8%	69.1%	93.4%	35.9%	21.5%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	73.8%	69.1%	93.4%	35.9%	21.5%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	73.8%	69.1%	93.4%	35.9%	21.5%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	73.8%	69.0%	93.4%	35.9%	21.4%
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	77.5%	60.1%	93.1%	51.9%	33.5%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	77.5%	60.1%	93.1%	51.9%	33.5%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	77.5%	60.1%	93.1%	51.9%	16.2%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	77.5%	60.1%	94.1%	51.9%	16.2%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	77.5%	60.1%	94.1%	51.9%	16.2%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	77.5%	60.1%	94.1%	51.9%	16.2%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	77.4%	60.1%	94.1%	51.9%	16.2%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	77.4%	60.1%	94.1%	51.9%	16.2%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	77.4%	60.1%	94.1%	51.9%	16.2%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	77.4%	60.1%	94.1%	51.9%	16.2%
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00	77.4%	60.1%	94.1%	68.4%	16.2%
2026-09-17T11:14:01+00:00	77.4%	69.1%	94.8%	68.4%	16.2%
2026-09-17T11:59:11+00:00	77.4%	69.1%	94.8%	68.4%	16.2%
2026-09-17T12:44:16+00:00	77.4%	69.1%	94.8%	68.4%	16.2%
2026-09-17T13:29:21+00:00	78.8%	69.1%	94.8%	68.4%	16.2%
2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00	78.9%	69.1%	94.8%	68.4%	16.1%
2026-09-17T15:00:43+00:00	78.9%	70.9%	94.8%	68.4%	16.1%
2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00	78.9%	70.8%	94.8%	68.4%	16.1%
2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00	78.9%	70.8%	94.8%	68.4%	15.5%
2026-09-17T17:16:18+00:00	78.9%	70.8%	93.0%	68.4%	15.5%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	78.9%	70.8%	93.0%	68.4%	15.5%
2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00	78.9%	70.8%	93.0%	68.4%	15.5%
2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00	79.6%	70.8%	93.0%	68.4%	15.5%
2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00	79.6%	70.8%	93.0%	68.4%	15.5%
2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00	79.6%	70.8%	93.0%	68.4%	15.5%
2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00	79.6%	70.8%	93.0%	68.4%	15.5%
2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00	79.6%	70.8%	93.0%	67.4%	15.5%
2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00	79.6%	70.8%	93.4%	67.5%	15.5%
2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00	79.6%	70.8%	93.4%	67.5%	15.5%
2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00	79.6%	70.8%	93.4%	67.5%	15.5%
2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00	76.7%	70.8%	93.4%	67.5%	15.5%
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00	76.7%	70.8%	93.4%	67.5%	15.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	82.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	80.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	79.1°F	2.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	79.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	16%	73.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 13 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗