KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

46%

40%

19%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.0¢Risks 29.95u

ICONNO 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.05u · ICON −70.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00	22.2%	29.0%	82.9%	39.9%	55.0%
2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00	22.2%	29.0%	65.0%	39.9%	55.0%
2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00	22.2%	29.0%	65.0%	39.9%	55.0%
2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00	22.2%	29.0%	65.0%	39.9%	55.0%
2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00	22.2%	29.0%	65.0%	39.9%	55.0%
2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00	35.9%	29.0%	65.0%	39.9%	63.2%
2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00	35.9%	29.0%	65.0%	39.9%	63.2%
2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00	35.9%	29.0%	65.0%	39.9%	63.2%
2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00	35.9%	29.0%	65.0%	39.9%	63.2%
2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00	35.9%	29.0%	59.1%	21.0%	63.2%
2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00	35.9%	29.0%	59.1%	21.0%	63.2%
2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00	35.9%	29.0%	59.1%	21.0%	63.2%
2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00	35.9%	29.0%	59.1%	21.0%	63.2%
2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00	44.1%	29.0%	59.1%	21.0%	63.2%
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00	44.1%	29.0%	59.1%	21.0%	63.2%
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	52.7%	23.1%	63.9%	43.9%	11.3%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	52.7%	23.1%	63.9%	43.9%	11.3%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	52.7%	23.1%	63.9%	43.9%	4.2%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	52.7%	23.1%	61.8%	43.9%	4.2%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	52.7%	23.1%	61.8%	43.9%	4.2%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	52.7%	23.1%	61.8%	43.9%	4.2%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	47.2%	23.1%	61.8%	43.9%	4.2%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	47.2%	23.1%	61.8%	43.9%	4.2%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	47.2%	23.1%	61.8%	43.9%	4.2%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	47.2%	23.1%	61.8%	43.9%	4.2%
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00	47.2%	23.1%	61.8%	39.5%	4.2%
2026-09-17T11:14:01+00:00	47.2%	19.4%	55.7%	39.5%	4.2%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	47.2%	19.4%	55.7%	39.5%	4.2%
2026-09-17T12:44:16+00:00	47.2%	19.4%	55.7%	39.5%	4.2%
2026-09-17T13:29:21+00:00	46.2%	19.4%	55.7%	39.5%	4.2%
2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00	46.2%	19.4%	55.7%	39.5%	4.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	79.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	78.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	76.9°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	73.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗