KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

46%

40%

19%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.0¢Risks 29.95u

ICONNO 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.05u · ICON −70.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	20.1%	—	35.8%	11.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	5.9%	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	4.0%	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	63.1%	13.0%	—	37.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	31.7%	53.6%	—	41.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	45.4%	—	28.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	82.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	88.1%	37.5%	—	61.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	0.4%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	0.1%	25.1%	—	45.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	8.8%	85.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	43.9%	81.6%	33.8%	—	23.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	58.0%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	52.8%	55.5%	59.1%	—	18.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	71.6%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	44.2%	49.0%	50.0%	0.3%	26.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	31.7%	27.4%	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	9.4%	11.8%	44.9%	—	30.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	12.7%	0.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	6.2%	0.0%	23.0%	—	23.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	4.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	19.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	2.2%	12.7%	21.5%	1.1%	24.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	14.5%	3.1%	20.8%	—	25.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	1.3%	15.1%	14.4%	0.1%	36.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	4.6%	3.7%	13.5%	—	28.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	5.0%	12.0%	29.5%	3.0%	22.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	4.3%	13.9%	28.8%	—	24.2%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.9%	35.8%	23.4%	1.1%	25.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.6%	31.1%	19.2%	—	27.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.2%	40.6%	17.1%	1.6%	13.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	21.6%	1.6%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	79.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	78.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	76.9°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	73.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗