KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Sep 15 · 15:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

38%

26%

14%

12%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.3¢Risks 39.30u

AIFSNO 60.7¢Risks 60.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.70u · AIFS −60.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	12.7%	—	25.2%	6.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	2.9%	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	1.8%	—	—	18.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	49.3%	6.9%	—	25.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	19.9%	39.2%	—	27.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	30.9%	—	17.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	70.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	78.2%	23.6%	—	45.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	0.0%	13.8%	—	30.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.8%	74.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	27.7%	67.8%	19.6%	—	12.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	40.2%	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	34.7%	37.3%	40.9%	—	8.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	53.8%	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	26.3%	30.4%	31.3%	0.1%	13.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	16.4%	13.5%	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	3.4%	4.4%	25.9%	—	15.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	4.7%	0.0%	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.9%	0.0%	9.9%	—	10.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	7.5%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.5%	4.2%	8.5%	0.2%	10.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.8%	0.7%	7.8%	—	10.2%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.2%	4.9%	4.6%	0.0%	16.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.0%	0.8%	4.0%	—	10.9%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.0%	3.2%	11.3%	0.5%	7.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.8%	3.7%	10.4%	—	8.1%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.3%	13.8%	7.3%	0.1%	8.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	10.5%	5.1%	—	8.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	15.2%	4.1%	0.2%	2.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	5.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	83.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	38%	80.1°F	4.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	79.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	78.2°F	5.1°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	77.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	75.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗