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KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Sep 15 · 15:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
67%
ICON
38%
HRES
26%
EPS
14%
AIFS
12%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 39.3¢Risks 39.30u
VS
AIFSNO 60.7¢Risks 60.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.70u · AIFS −60.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.1% · 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.1% · 2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.1% · 2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.1% · 2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.1% · 2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.1% · 2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.0% · 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.5% · 2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.5% · 2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.9% · 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.9% · 2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.9% · 2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.9% · 2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.9% · 2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.9% · 2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.9% · 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00IFS HRES: 25.8% · 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00IFS HRES: 25.8% · 2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00IFS HRES: 25.8% · 2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00IFS HRES: 25.8% · 2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00IFS HRES: 25.8% · 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00IFS HRES: 25.8% · 2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00IFS HRES: 25.8% · 2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00IFS HRES: 25.8% · 2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00IFS HRES: 25.8% · 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:0009-15 03:3009-15 09:3109-15 15:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:009.6%37.5%59.5%10.9%11.4%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:009.6%37.5%59.5%10.9%11.4%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:009.6%37.5%62.3%10.9%11.4%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:009.6%37.5%62.3%10.9%11.4%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:009.6%37.5%62.3%10.9%11.4%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:009.6%37.5%62.3%10.9%11.4%
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:008.1%37.5%62.3%25.8%38.4%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:008.1%37.5%62.3%25.8%38.4%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:008.1%37.5%62.3%25.8%38.4%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:008.1%37.5%62.3%25.8%38.4%
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:008.1%14.1%66.9%25.8%38.4%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:008.1%14.1%66.9%25.8%38.4%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:008.1%14.1%66.9%25.8%38.4%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:008.1%14.1%66.9%25.8%38.4%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:0011.7%14.1%66.9%31.9%38.4%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:0011.7%14.1%66.9%31.9%38.4%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:0011.7%14.0%66.9%25.8%38.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 267%83.2°F3.9°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%82.0°F4.5°F2026-09-15 03:00Pending
ICON38%80.1°F4.8°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
National Blend35%79.7°F4.7°F2026-09-15 06:00Pending
IFS HRES26%78.2°F5.1°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble14%77.4°F3.8°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single12%75.9°F4.7°F2026-09-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗