KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Sep 16 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

33%

27%

26%

24%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.7¢Risks 48.70u

ICONNO 51.3¢Risks 51.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.30u · ICON −51.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	15.3%	11.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	3.4%	—	—	10.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	2.0%	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	14.9%	—	28.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	92.4%	17.0%	—	61.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	43.2%	—	55.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	8.4%	17.9%	10.8%	—	43.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	13.0%	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	12.5%	2.2%	14.8%	—	17.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	20.1%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	15.6%	43.0%	19.6%	—	19.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	13.0%	10.8%	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	2.9%	7.6%	4.8%	—	29.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	42.5%	7.7%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	2.5%	2.0%	2.4%	—	21.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.7%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.1%	5.5%	1.6%	0.1%	12.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	4.0%	8.0%	—	—	20.5%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.7%	0.2%	4.0%	0.0%	11.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.8%	0.3%	0.4%	—	12.9%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%	1.3%	0.3%	19.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.1%	28.3%	4.5%	—	19.1%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%	87.0%	0.1%	28.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.1%	9.8%	92.8%	—	24.8%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.3%	5.3%	5.7%	1.1%	7.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	3.2%	6.2%	—	7.1%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	2.9%	0.2%	8.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	1.3%	—	2.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	4.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	81.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	76.7°F	7.0°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	78.1°F	3.2°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	76.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	76.2°F	5.1°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	76.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗