KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Sep 16 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

33%

27%

26%

24%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.7¢Risks 48.70u

ICONNO 51.3¢Risks 51.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.30u · ICON −51.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	39.7%	58.8%	87.3%	88.6%	82.0%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	39.7%	58.8%	87.3%	88.6%	82.0%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	39.7%	58.8%	84.8%	88.6%	82.0%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	39.7%	58.8%	84.8%	88.6%	82.0%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	39.7%	58.8%	84.8%	88.6%	82.0%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	39.7%	58.8%	84.8%	88.6%	82.0%
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00	60.3%	58.8%	84.8%	21.0%	20.9%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00	60.3%	58.8%	84.8%	21.0%	20.9%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00	60.3%	58.8%	84.8%	21.0%	20.9%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00	60.3%	58.8%	84.8%	21.0%	20.9%
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00	60.3%	48.3%	88.2%	21.0%	20.9%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00	60.3%	48.3%	88.2%	21.0%	20.9%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00	60.3%	48.3%	88.2%	21.0%	20.9%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00	60.3%	48.3%	88.2%	21.0%	20.9%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00	16.3%	48.3%	88.2%	27.1%	21.2%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00	16.3%	48.3%	88.2%	27.1%	21.2%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00	16.3%	49.1%	88.2%	21.1%	21.2%
2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00	16.3%	49.1%	88.2%	21.1%	21.2%
2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00	16.3%	49.1%	73.5%	21.1%	21.2%
2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00	16.3%	49.1%	73.5%	21.1%	21.2%
2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00	16.3%	49.1%	73.5%	21.1%	21.2%
2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00	16.3%	49.1%	73.5%	21.1%	21.2%
2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00	14.8%	49.1%	73.5%	21.1%	28.7%
2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00	14.8%	49.1%	73.5%	21.1%	28.7%
2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00	14.8%	49.1%	73.5%	21.1%	28.7%
2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00	14.8%	49.1%	73.5%	21.1%	28.7%
2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00	14.8%	49.1%	75.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00	14.8%	49.1%	75.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00	14.8%	49.1%	75.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00	14.8%	49.1%	75.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00	13.5%	49.1%	75.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00	13.5%	49.1%	75.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-16T03:36:09+00:00	13.5%	49.1%	75.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	13.5%	49.1%	75.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	13.5%	49.1%	71.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	13.5%	49.1%	71.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	13.5%	49.1%	71.0%	20.6%	28.7%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	13.9%	49.1%	71.0%	25.8%	24.4%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	13.9%	49.1%	71.0%	25.8%	24.4%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	13.9%	49.1%	71.0%	25.8%	24.4%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	13.9%	49.1%	71.0%	25.8%	24.4%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	13.9%	49.1%	71.0%	25.8%	24.4%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	13.9%	33.1%	73.1%	25.8%	24.4%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	13.9%	33.1%	73.1%	25.8%	24.4%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	13.9%	33.1%	73.1%	25.8%	24.4%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	26.9%	33.1%	73.1%	25.8%	24.4%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	26.9%	33.1%	73.1%	25.8%	24.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	81.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	76.7°F	7.0°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	78.1°F	3.2°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	76.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	76.2°F	5.1°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	76.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗