KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

29%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 20.0¢Risks 19.95u

AIFSNO 80.0¢Risks 80.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +80.05u · AIFS −80.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.7%	0.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	0.2%	—	0.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	34.3%	0.3%	—	6.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	1.8%	—	3.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	—	1.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.3%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.7%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	38%	87.5°F	6.6°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	29%	85.7°F	6.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	84.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	78.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	78.1°F	5.3°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 13 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗