KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

29%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 20.0¢Risks 19.95u

AIFSNO 80.0¢Risks 80.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +80.05u · AIFS −80.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	9.3%	23.7%	13.6%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	9.3%	23.7%	13.6%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	9.3%	23.7%	13.6%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	9.3%	23.7%	13.6%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	1.0%	2.4%	9.3%	23.8%	13.5%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	1.0%	2.4%	9.3%	23.8%	13.5%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	1.0%	2.7%	9.3%	23.8%	13.5%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	1.0%	2.7%	9.3%	23.8%	13.5%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	1.0%	2.7%	2.8%	23.8%	13.5%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	1.0%	2.7%	2.8%	23.8%	13.5%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	1.0%	2.7%	2.8%	23.8%	13.5%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	1.0%	2.7%	2.8%	23.8%	13.5%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	1.7%	2.7%	5.3%	11.8%	13.5%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	1.7%	2.7%	5.3%	11.8%	13.5%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	1.7%	2.7%	5.3%	11.8%	13.5%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	1.7%	2.7%	20.0%	11.8%	13.5%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	1.7%	2.7%	20.0%	11.8%	13.5%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	1.7%	2.7%	20.0%	11.8%	13.5%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	1.7%	2.7%	20.0%	11.8%	13.5%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	0.7%	2.7%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	0.7%	2.7%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	0.7%	2.7%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	0.7%	2.7%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	0.7%	1.8%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	0.7%	1.8%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	0.7%	1.8%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	0.7%	1.8%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	0.5%	1.8%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	0.5%	1.8%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	0.5%	2.3%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	0.5%	2.3%	20.0%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	0.5%	2.3%	10.9%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	0.5%	2.3%	10.9%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	0.5%	2.3%	10.9%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	0.5%	2.3%	10.9%	47.0%	0.2%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	21.6%	2.3%	10.9%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	21.6%	2.3%	10.9%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	21.6%	2.3%	10.9%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	21.6%	2.3%	10.9%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	21.6%	2.3%	13.6%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	21.6%	2.3%	13.6%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	21.6%	2.3%	13.6%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	21.6%	2.3%	13.6%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	13.6%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	13.6%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	13.6%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	13.6%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	11.4%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	11.4%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	11.4%	38.2%	28.8%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	11.4%	38.2%	28.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	38%	87.5°F	6.6°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	29%	85.7°F	6.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	84.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	78.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	78.1°F	5.3°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 13 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗