KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 21 · 10:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

94%

78%

71%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.6¢Risks 85.60u

HRESNO 14.4¢Risks 14.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.40u · HRES −14.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	12.5%	—	—	97.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	100.0%	—	—	99.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	—	—	88.8%	—	94.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	100.0%	98.9%	—	99.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	76.6%	100.0%	89.3%	—	98.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	99.8%	99.8%	98.1%	—	98.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	85.6%	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	100.0%	82.2%	92.0%	—	96.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	99.3%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	83.3%	79.2%	98.1%	—	94.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	90.8%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	93.0%	69.5%	89.4%	—	91.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	90.4%	40.6%	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	96.2%	64.3%	91.8%	—	84.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	94.6%	79.6%	—	—	86.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	96.5%	65.1%	93.6%	—	84.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	81.7%	79.5%	—	—	79.5%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	95.0%	80.2%	95.3%	68.9%	88.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	87.7%	87.1%	46.6%	—	85.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	84.0%	93.2%	98.9%	96.0%	81.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	84.0%	80.1%	99.6%	—	80.9%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	76.4%	64.6%	78.3%	91.0%	68.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	80.9%	68.7%	63.9%	—	75.2%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	93.0%	60.6%	61.9%	93.9%	71.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	93.3%	61.0%	77.9%	—	66.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	96.3%	64.2%	66.9%	89.8%	74.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	45.5%	16.2%	68.9%	—	50.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	21.4%	4.8%	20.3%	7.1%	12.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	1.9%	—	2.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	77.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	68.3°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	66.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	65.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗