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KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 21 · 10:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
94%
ICON
78%
HRES
71%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 85.6¢Risks 85.60u
VS
HRESNO 14.4¢Risks 14.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.40u · HRES −14.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-09-20T15:18:41+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00AIFS Single: 84.8% · 2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00AIFS Single: 94.2% · 2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T15:18:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T15:18:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-20T15:18:41+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00IFS HRES: 53.2% · 2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-09-20T15:18:41+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:0009-20 15:1809-21 01:0509-21 10:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-20T15:18:41+00:0076.8%100.0%100.0%53.2%60.0%
2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:0076.8%100.0%100.0%53.2%60.0%
2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:0076.8%100.0%100.0%53.2%80.2%
2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:0076.8%100.0%100.0%53.2%80.2%
2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:0076.8%100.0%100.0%53.2%80.2%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:0076.8%100.0%100.0%53.2%80.2%
2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:0081.1%100.0%100.0%53.2%80.2%
2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:0081.1%100.0%100.0%53.2%80.2%
2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:0081.1%100.0%100.0%53.2%80.2%
2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:0081.1%100.0%100.0%53.2%80.2%
2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:0081.1%100.0%100.0%71.2%80.2%
2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:0081.1%100.0%100.0%71.2%80.2%
2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:0081.1%100.0%100.0%71.2%80.2%
2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:0081.1%100.0%100.0%71.2%80.2%
2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:0084.8%100.0%100.0%71.2%80.2%
2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:0084.8%100.0%100.0%71.2%80.2%
2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:0084.8%100.0%100.0%71.2%80.2%
2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:0084.8%100.0%100.0%71.2%80.2%
2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:0084.8%100.0%100.0%71.2%77.6%
2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:0084.8%100.0%100.0%71.2%77.6%
2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:0084.8%100.0%100.0%71.2%77.6%
2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:0084.8%100.0%100.0%71.2%77.6%
2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:0094.2%100.0%100.0%71.2%77.6%
2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:0094.2%100.0%100.0%71.2%77.6%
2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:0094.2%100.0%100.0%71.2%77.6%
2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:0094.2%100.0%100.0%71.2%77.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%74.3°F2.6°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2>99%77.8°F3.9°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single94%68.3°F3.0°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
ICON78%66.1°F3.4°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
IFS HRES71%65.6°F3.8°F2026-09-20 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%64.0°F2.2°F2026-09-21 02:00Pending
National Blend46%63.0°F4.4°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗