KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

86%

60%

57%

25%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.9¢Risks 60.85u

AIFSNO 39.1¢Risks 39.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.15u · AIFS −39.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	82.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	85.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	99.5%	—	—	89.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	49.3%	—	65.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	99.7%	84.4%	—	90.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	27.0%	99.8%	46.2%	—	82.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	92.2%	92.8%	75.2%	—	74.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	35.6%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	97.9%	29.3%	47.5%	—	63.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	83.3%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	28.4%	23.4%	70.1%	—	53.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	40.2%	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	44.5%	13.4%	35.6%	—	39.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	36.1%	2.9%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	52.9%	9.0%	37.6%	—	24.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	44.0%	17.7%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	50.0%	7.8%	38.8%	—	21.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	16.9%	15.0%	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	39.2%	14.3%	40.3%	7.7%	23.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	20.6%	19.8%	1.9%	—	17.5%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	14.7%	28.9%	59.2%	38.5%	12.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	13.2%	10.2%	69.6%	—	10.8%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	7.1%	3.5%	8.0%	19.9%	4.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	8.2%	3.7%	2.8%	—	5.6%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	19.1%	1.9%	2.0%	21.0%	3.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	17.3%	1.5%	4.7%	—	2.1%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	22.2%	1.5%	1.8%	10.2%	2.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	1.5%	—	0.4%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	77.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	71.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	72.0°F	7.8°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	57%	71.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	67.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗