KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

86%

60%

57%

25%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.9¢Risks 60.85u

AIFSNO 39.1¢Risks 39.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.15u · AIFS −39.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T15:00:43+00:00	20.8%	86.0%	91.7%	61.7%	40.0%
2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00	20.8%	86.0%	91.7%	61.7%	40.0%
2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00	20.8%	86.0%	91.7%	61.7%	56.7%
2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00	20.8%	86.0%	94.5%	61.7%	56.7%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	20.8%	86.0%	94.5%	61.7%	56.7%
2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00	20.8%	86.0%	94.5%	61.7%	56.7%
2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00	42.4%	86.0%	94.5%	61.7%	56.7%
2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00	42.4%	86.0%	94.5%	61.7%	56.7%
2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00	42.4%	86.0%	94.5%	61.7%	56.7%
2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00	42.4%	86.0%	94.5%	61.7%	56.7%
2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00	42.4%	86.0%	94.5%	60.1%	56.7%
2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00	42.4%	86.0%	97.0%	60.1%	56.7%
2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00	42.4%	86.0%	97.0%	60.1%	56.7%
2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00	42.4%	86.0%	97.0%	60.1%	56.7%
2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00	24.7%	86.0%	97.0%	60.1%	56.7%
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00	24.7%	86.0%	97.0%	60.1%	56.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	77.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	71.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	72.0°F	7.8°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	57%	71.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	67.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗