KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

68%

46%

25%

11%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.9¢Risks 45.85u

AIFSNO 54.1¢Risks 54.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.15u · AIFS −54.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	—	—	—	77.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	98.6%	—	—	82.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	35.6%	—	52.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	99.0%	74.0%	—	82.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	16.0%	99.2%	31.6%	—	71.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	84.6%	85.5%	61.0%	—	60.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	21.8%	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	94.7%	16.8%	31.5%	—	46.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	70.4%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	15.6%	12.2%	53.5%	—	36.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	24.2%	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	27.4%	5.8%	20.3%	—	23.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	20.3%	0.9%	—	—	17.1%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	33.9%	3.4%	21.0%	—	11.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	25.7%	7.6%	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	30.3%	2.6%	21.2%	—	9.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	6.8%	5.8%	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	20.6%	5.3%	21.3%	2.4%	9.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	8.3%	7.9%	0.4%	—	6.7%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	5.1%	12.7%	36.3%	19.1%	4.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.3%	3.1%	46.4%	—	3.3%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.8%	0.7%	2.1%	7.1%	0.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	0.8%	0.5%	—	1.3%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.1%	0.3%	0.3%	7.0%	0.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.0%	0.2%	0.9%	—	0.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.8%	0.2%	0.2%	2.3%	0.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	75.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	74.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	7.8°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	72.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	69.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	66.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 14 · 10:57 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗