KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

68%

46%

25%

11%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.9¢Risks 45.85u

AIFSNO 54.1¢Risks 54.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.15u · AIFS −54.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	48.6%	94.5%	91.6%	97.1%	31.2%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	48.6%	94.5%	91.6%	97.1%	31.2%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	48.6%	94.5%	91.6%	97.1%	31.2%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	48.6%	94.5%	91.6%	97.1%	31.2%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	26.4%	94.5%	91.5%	97.0%	31.2%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	26.4%	94.5%	91.5%	97.0%	31.2%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	26.4%	94.4%	91.5%	97.0%	31.2%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	26.4%	94.4%	91.5%	97.0%	31.2%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	26.4%	94.4%	75.6%	97.0%	31.2%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	26.4%	94.4%	75.6%	97.0%	31.2%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	26.4%	94.4%	75.6%	97.0%	31.2%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	26.4%	94.4%	75.6%	97.0%	31.2%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	36.6%	94.4%	75.6%	49.4%	90.9%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	36.6%	94.4%	75.6%	49.4%	90.9%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	36.6%	94.4%	75.6%	49.4%	90.9%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	36.6%	94.4%	75.6%	49.4%	90.9%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	36.6%	94.4%	80.5%	49.4%	90.9%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	36.6%	94.4%	80.5%	49.4%	91.0%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	36.6%	94.4%	80.5%	49.4%	91.0%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	36.6%	94.4%	80.5%	49.4%	91.0%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	27.0%	94.4%	80.5%	49.4%	91.0%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	27.0%	94.4%	80.5%	49.4%	91.0%
2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00	32.7%	88.8%	88.6%	97.0%	77.4%
2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00	32.7%	88.8%	68.9%	97.0%	77.4%
2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00	32.7%	88.8%	68.9%	97.0%	77.4%
2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00	32.7%	88.8%	68.9%	97.0%	77.4%
2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00	32.7%	88.8%	68.9%	97.0%	77.4%
2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00	50.0%	88.8%	68.9%	97.0%	38.4%
2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00	50.0%	88.8%	68.9%	97.0%	38.4%
2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00	50.0%	88.8%	68.9%	97.0%	38.4%
2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00	50.0%	88.8%	68.9%	97.0%	38.4%
2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00	50.0%	88.8%	74.9%	77.0%	38.4%
2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00	50.0%	88.8%	74.9%	77.0%	38.4%
2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00	50.0%	88.8%	74.9%	77.0%	38.4%
2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00	50.0%	88.8%	74.9%	77.0%	38.4%
2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00	52.2%	88.8%	74.9%	77.0%	38.4%
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00	52.2%	88.8%	74.9%	77.0%	38.4%
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	34.4%	73.9%	79.4%	28.6%	95.5%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	34.4%	73.9%	79.4%	28.6%	95.5%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	34.4%	73.9%	79.4%	28.6%	25.0%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	34.4%	73.9%	85.5%	28.6%	25.0%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	34.4%	73.9%	85.5%	28.6%	25.0%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	34.4%	73.9%	85.5%	28.6%	25.0%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	19.7%	73.9%	85.5%	28.6%	25.0%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	19.7%	73.9%	85.5%	28.6%	25.0%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	19.7%	73.9%	85.5%	28.6%	25.0%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	19.7%	73.9%	85.5%	28.6%	25.0%
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00	19.7%	73.9%	85.5%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-09-17T11:14:01+00:00	19.7%	68.2%	80.8%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	19.7%	68.2%	80.8%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-09-17T12:44:16+00:00	19.7%	68.2%	80.8%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-09-17T13:29:21+00:00	10.8%	68.2%	80.8%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00	10.8%	68.2%	80.9%	46.1%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	75.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	74.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	7.8°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	72.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	69.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	66.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 14 · 10:57 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗