KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Sep 14 · 10:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

88%

82%

41%

28%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 61.8¢Risks 61.80u

ICONNO 38.2¢Risks 38.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.20u · ICON −38.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	97.9%	—	—	77.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	29.2%	—	45.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	98.4%	67.7%	—	77.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	11.8%	98.7%	25.1%	—	64.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	79.4%	80.5%	53.2%	—	52.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	16.3%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	92.0%	12.0%	24.5%	—	38.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	62.6%	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	10.9%	8.3%	44.8%	—	28.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	17.8%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	20.3%	3.6%	14.4%	—	16.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	14.3%	0.4%	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	25.5%	1.9%	14.7%	—	7.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	18.3%	4.7%	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	21.9%	1.4%	14.5%	—	5.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	4.0%	3.3%	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	13.7%	2.9%	14.3%	1.2%	5.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.8%	4.5%	0.2%	—	3.8%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.7%	7.6%	26.0%	12.1%	2.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.2%	1.5%	34.7%	—	1.6%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	0.3%	0.9%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.3%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.0%	0.1%	0.1%	3.5%	0.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	84.2°F	6.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	79.5°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	78.6°F	5.7°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.4°F	7.7°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	72.3°F	5.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	67.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗