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KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Sep 14 · 10:12 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
96%
WN2
88%
EPS
82%
AIFS
41%
ICON
28%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 61.8¢Risks 61.80u
VS
ICONNO 38.2¢Risks 38.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.20u · ICON −38.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.6% · 2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.6% · 2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.6% · 2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.6% · 2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.1% · 2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00IFS HRES: 95.9% · 2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00IFS HRES: 95.9% · 2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00IFS HRES: 95.9% · 2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00IFS HRES: 95.9% · 2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:0009-14 07:5609-14 09:2709-14 10:12
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:0041.4%81.6%88.1%95.9%27.7%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:0041.4%81.6%88.1%95.9%27.7%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:0041.4%81.6%88.1%95.9%27.7%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:0041.4%81.6%88.1%95.9%27.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES96%84.2°F6.2°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 288%79.5°F5.1°F2026-09-13 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble82%78.6°F5.7°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending
National Blend55%74.4°F7.7°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single41%72.3°F5.5°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
ICON28%67.7°F9.8°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 74°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗