KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Sep 17 · 02:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

46%

44%

11%

11%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.6¢Risks 47.60u

HRESNO 52.4¢Risks 52.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.40u · HRES −52.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	53.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	93.6%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	14.1%	—	25.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	94.5%	46.4%	—	58.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	3.9%	95.2%	10.7%	—	41.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	58.7%	60.3%	30.1%	—	29.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	5.5%	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	78.1%	3.6%	9.3%	—	17.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	37.4%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.9%	2.1%	21.4%	—	10.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.5%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	6.3%	0.6%	3.9%	—	4.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.8%	0.0%	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	0.2%	3.8%	—	1.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.9%	0.8%	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.1%	0.1%	3.4%	—	0.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	0.4%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.8%	0.3%	2.9%	0.1%	0.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.1%	6.5%	2.1%	0.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	9.7%	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	85%	82.5°F	5.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	76.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	75.9°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	75.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	69.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗