KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Sep 17 · 02:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

46%

44%

11%

11%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.6¢Risks 47.60u

HRESNO 52.4¢Risks 52.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.40u · HRES −52.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	9.1%	79.3%	50.8%	25.5%	82.4%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	9.1%	79.3%	50.8%	25.5%	82.4%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	9.1%	79.3%	59.1%	25.5%	82.4%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	9.1%	79.3%	59.1%	25.5%	82.4%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	9.1%	79.3%	59.1%	25.5%	82.4%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	9.1%	79.3%	59.1%	25.5%	82.4%
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00	21.1%	79.3%	59.1%	90.0%	55.9%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00	21.1%	79.3%	59.1%	90.0%	55.9%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00	21.1%	79.3%	59.1%	90.0%	55.9%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00	21.1%	79.3%	59.1%	90.0%	55.9%
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00	21.1%	64.1%	62.3%	90.0%	55.9%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00	21.1%	64.1%	62.3%	90.0%	55.9%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00	21.1%	64.1%	62.3%	90.0%	55.9%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00	21.1%	64.1%	62.3%	90.0%	55.9%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00	11.6%	64.1%	62.3%	83.5%	56.4%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00	11.6%	64.1%	62.3%	83.5%	56.4%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00	11.6%	65.2%	62.3%	90.0%	56.4%
2026-09-16T03:36:09+00:00	24.5%	65.2%	41.1%	55.4%	18.8%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	24.5%	65.2%	41.1%	55.4%	18.8%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	24.5%	65.2%	53.6%	55.4%	18.8%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	24.5%	65.2%	53.6%	55.4%	18.8%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	24.5%	65.2%	53.6%	55.4%	18.8%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	30.1%	65.2%	53.6%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	30.1%	65.2%	53.6%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	30.1%	65.2%	53.6%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	30.1%	65.2%	53.6%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	30.1%	65.2%	53.6%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	30.1%	50.9%	50.0%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	30.1%	50.9%	50.0%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	30.1%	50.9%	50.0%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	12.6%	50.9%	50.0%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	12.6%	50.9%	50.0%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	12.6%	45.5%	50.0%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	12.6%	45.5%	50.0%	14.9%	71.3%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	12.6%	45.5%	50.0%	20.8%	84.2%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	12.6%	45.5%	39.5%	20.8%	84.2%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	12.6%	45.5%	39.5%	20.8%	84.2%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	12.6%	45.5%	39.5%	20.8%	84.2%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	8.3%	45.5%	39.5%	16.5%	84.2%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	8.3%	45.5%	39.5%	16.5%	84.2%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	8.3%	45.5%	39.5%	16.5%	84.2%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	8.3%	45.5%	39.5%	16.5%	84.2%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	8.3%	45.5%	39.5%	16.5%	84.2%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	8.3%	45.5%	44.3%	10.6%	84.6%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	8.3%	45.5%	44.3%	10.6%	84.6%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	8.3%	45.5%	44.3%	10.6%	84.6%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	11.4%	45.5%	44.3%	10.6%	84.6%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00	11.4%	45.5%	44.3%	10.6%	84.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	85%	82.5°F	5.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	76.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	75.9°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	75.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	69.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 15 · 03:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗