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KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Sep 22 · 07:13 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
EPS
93%
HRES
71%
AIFS
70%
ICON
8%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 54.0¢Risks 54.00u
VS
ICONNO 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.00u · ICON −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-09-19T15:12:57+00:00AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00AIFS Single: 73.8% · 2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00AIFS Single: 73.8% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 73.8% · 2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00AIFS Single: 73.8% · 2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00AIFS Single: 73.8% · 2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00AIFS Single: 73.8% · 2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00AIFS Single: 73.8% · 2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00AIFS Single: 73.8% · 2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T15:12:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T15:12:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00IFS HRES: 52.6% · 2026-09-19T15:12:57+00:00IFS HRES: 52.6% · 2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00IFS HRES: 52.6% · 2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00IFS HRES: 52.6% · 2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00IFS HRES: 52.6% · 2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00IFS HRES: 52.6% · 2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-09-19T15:12:57+00:00ICON: 86.6% · 2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00ICON: 75.6% · 2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00ICON: 30.6% · 2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:0009-19 15:1209-21 17:4009-22 07:13
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-19T15:12:57+00:0078.7%99.9%100.0%52.6%86.6%
2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:0078.7%99.9%100.0%52.6%86.6%
2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:0078.7%99.9%100.0%52.6%75.6%
2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:0078.7%99.9%100.0%52.6%75.6%
2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:0078.7%99.9%100.0%52.6%75.6%
2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:0078.7%99.9%100.0%52.6%75.6%
2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:0081.2%99.9%100.0%73.2%75.6%
2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:0081.2%99.9%100.0%73.2%75.6%
2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:0081.2%99.9%100.0%73.2%75.6%
2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:0081.2%99.9%100.0%73.2%75.6%
2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:0081.2%99.9%100.0%73.2%75.6%
2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:0081.2%99.9%100.0%73.2%75.7%
2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:0081.2%99.9%100.0%73.2%75.7%
2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:0081.2%99.9%100.0%73.2%75.7%
2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:0080.0%99.9%100.0%73.2%75.7%
2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:0080.0%99.9%100.0%73.2%75.7%
2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:0074.6%92.9%100.0%57.4%21.4%
2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:0074.6%92.9%100.0%57.4%21.4%
2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:0074.6%92.9%100.0%57.4%30.6%
2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:0074.6%92.9%100.0%57.4%30.6%
2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:0074.6%92.9%100.0%57.4%30.6%
2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:0074.6%92.9%100.0%57.4%30.6%
2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:0073.8%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:0073.8%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:0073.8%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:0073.8%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:0073.8%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:0073.8%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:0073.8%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:0073.8%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:0070.5%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:0070.5%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:0070.5%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:0070.5%92.9%100.0%71.2%30.6%
2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:0070.5%92.9%100.0%71.2%8.0%
2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:0070.5%92.9%100.0%71.2%8.0%
2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:0070.5%92.9%100.0%71.2%8.0%
2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:0070.5%92.9%100.0%71.2%8.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%75.7°F4.2°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble93%65.5°F2.7°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
IFS HRES71%63.6°F3.8°F2026-09-21 12:00Pending
AIFS Single70%63.7°F4.1°F2026-09-21 18:00Pending
NWS forecast59%62.0°F2.2°F2026-09-22 02:00Pending
National Blend59%62.0°F2.2°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
ICON8%56.7°F3.4°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 19 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗