KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Sep 22 · 07:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

93%

71%

70%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

ICONNO 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.00u · ICON −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	91.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	99.8%	—	—	95.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	97.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	100.0%	71.4%	—	99.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	97.3%	100.0%	99.6%	—	99.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	99.6%	73.0%	97.1%	—	94.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	96.1%	74.5%	99.6%	—	91.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	79.3%	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	81.6%	88.4%	83.2%	—	82.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	81.0%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	79.2%	66.2%	97.8%	—	77.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	72.9%	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	66.1%	60.9%	94.2%	—	68.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	50.0%	47.2%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	82.3%	76.8%	97.6%	—	77.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	62.8%	56.0%	—	—	69.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	71.5%	64.1%	82.4%	—	77.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	75.5%	37.5%	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	65.9%	25.5%	59.7%	—	71.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	52.2%	16.1%	36.7%	—	76.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	45.4%	22.4%	41.9%	34.1%	57.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	35.9%	30.4%	59.5%	—	60.7%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	33.1%	24.6%	89.4%	27.6%	56.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	34.9%	37.3%	67.5%	—	63.9%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	44.6%	19.1%	35.6%	31.9%	71.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	27.6%	8.6%	72.4%	—	52.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	18.2%	8.9%	51.4%	21.2%	47.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	21.3%	10.5%	33.8%	—	42.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	18.1%	7.1%	63.9%	12.5%	39.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	25.4%	8.6%	35.5%	—	28.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	65.5°F	2.7°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	63.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	63.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	56.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 19 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗