KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

89%

57%

36%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.3¢Risks 54.30u

ICONNO 45.7¢Risks 45.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.70u · ICON −45.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	—	—	—	86.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	84.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	83.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	93.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	99.6%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	99.9%	—	—	95.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	100.0%	58.4%	—	98.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	94.1%	99.8%	98.9%	—	97.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	98.8%	59.1%	93.5%	—	89.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	91.3%	60.3%	98.8%	—	83.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	65.9%	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	68.5%	78.1%	70.7%	—	70.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	67.4%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	64.6%	49.1%	94.3%	—	62.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	56.3%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	48.2%	42.7%	86.7%	—	50.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	31.8%	29.2%	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	67.0%	59.6%	93.2%	—	60.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	43.0%	36.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	52.1%	43.9%	66.0%	—	59.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	56.3%	19.8%	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	44.5%	11.4%	38.2%	—	51.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	30.5%	6.0%	18.3%	—	55.6%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	24.2%	9.0%	21.5%	16.0%	34.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	16.7%	13.2%	35.9%	—	37.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	14.4%	9.5%	73.4%	11.2%	32.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	15.0%	16.6%	42.3%	—	38.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	21.0%	6.1%	14.9%	12.7%	46.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	9.8%	2.0%	45.8%	—	26.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	5.1%	1.9%	24.5%	6.3%	21.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	6.0%	2.2%	12.0%	—	17.2%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	4.4%	1.2%	33.1%	2.6%	14.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	6.8%	1.4%	11.5%	—	7.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	66.7°F	2.6°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	64.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	62.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗