KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

37%

33%

11%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 24.3¢Risks 24.30u

AIFSNO 75.7¢Risks 75.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +75.70u · AIFS −75.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T03:36:09+00:00	33.3%	72.0%	45.8%	90.4%	42.7%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	33.3%	72.0%	45.8%	90.4%	42.7%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	33.3%	72.0%	60.8%	90.4%	42.7%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	33.3%	72.0%	60.8%	90.4%	42.7%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	33.3%	72.0%	60.8%	90.4%	42.7%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	57.4%	72.0%	60.8%	41.7%	54.1%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	57.4%	72.0%	60.8%	41.7%	54.1%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	57.4%	72.0%	60.8%	41.7%	54.1%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	57.4%	72.0%	60.8%	41.7%	54.1%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	57.4%	72.0%	60.8%	41.7%	54.1%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	57.4%	59.0%	57.1%	41.7%	54.1%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	57.4%	59.0%	57.1%	41.7%	54.1%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	57.4%	59.0%	57.1%	41.7%	54.1%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	34.0%	59.0%	57.1%	41.7%	54.1%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	34.0%	59.0%	57.1%	41.7%	54.1%
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	19.5%	52.8%	44.7%	28.4%	72.2%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	19.5%	52.8%	44.7%	28.4%	72.2%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	19.5%	52.8%	44.7%	28.4%	37.3%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	19.5%	52.8%	48.2%	28.4%	37.3%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	19.5%	52.8%	48.2%	28.4%	37.3%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	19.5%	52.8%	48.2%	28.4%	37.3%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	2.5%	52.8%	48.2%	28.4%	37.3%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	2.5%	52.8%	48.2%	28.4%	37.3%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	2.5%	52.8%	48.2%	28.4%	37.3%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	2.5%	52.8%	48.2%	28.4%	37.3%
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00	2.5%	52.8%	48.2%	10.9%	37.3%
2026-09-17T11:14:01+00:00	2.5%	33.4%	46.2%	10.9%	37.3%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	2.5%	33.4%	46.2%	10.9%	37.3%
2026-09-17T12:44:16+00:00	2.5%	33.4%	46.2%	10.9%	37.3%
2026-09-17T13:29:21+00:00	2.4%	33.4%	46.2%	10.9%	37.3%
2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00	2.4%	33.4%	46.2%	10.9%	37.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	74.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	72.6°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	72.0°F	7.6°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	72.4°F	4.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	64.7°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗