KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Sep 17 · 14:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

37%

33%

11%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 24.3¢Risks 24.30u

AIFSNO 75.7¢Risks 75.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +75.70u · AIFS −75.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	81.1%	—	—	35.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	87.2%	—	—	43.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	92.1%	4.2%	—	63.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	32.3%	81.6%	60.1%	—	47.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	56.1%	3.0%	27.7%	—	18.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	20.1%	2.6%	52.4%	—	11.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.3%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.4%	6.3%	3.9%	—	3.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.8%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.1%	0.7%	20.2%	—	1.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	1.0%	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	7.6%	—	0.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	0.7%	11.6%	—	0.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.8%	—	0.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	74.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	72.6°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	72.0°F	7.6°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	72.4°F	4.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	64.7°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗