KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 17 · 09:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 4.6¢Risks 1.15u

AIFSNO 95.4¢Risks 23.85u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.85u · AIFS −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00	6.1%	21.8%	4.2%	49.4%	18.4%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00	6.1%	21.8%	4.2%	49.4%	18.4%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00	6.1%	21.8%	4.2%	49.4%	18.4%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00	6.1%	21.8%	4.2%	49.4%	18.4%
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00	6.1%	19.7%	7.4%	49.4%	18.4%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00	6.1%	19.7%	7.4%	49.4%	18.4%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00	6.1%	19.7%	7.4%	49.4%	18.4%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00	6.1%	19.7%	7.4%	49.4%	18.4%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00	0.3%	19.8%	7.4%	49.5%	18.7%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00	0.3%	19.8%	7.4%	49.5%	18.7%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00	0.3%	19.1%	7.4%	49.4%	18.7%
2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00	0.3%	19.1%	7.4%	49.4%	18.7%
2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00	0.3%	19.1%	2.9%	49.4%	18.7%
2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00	0.3%	19.1%	2.9%	49.4%	18.7%
2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00	0.3%	19.1%	2.9%	49.4%	18.7%
2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00	0.3%	19.1%	2.9%	49.4%	18.7%
2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00	4.3%	19.1%	2.9%	49.4%	15.9%
2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00	4.3%	19.1%	2.9%	49.4%	15.9%
2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00	4.3%	19.1%	2.9%	49.4%	15.9%
2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00	4.3%	19.1%	2.9%	49.4%	15.9%
2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00	4.3%	19.1%	3.7%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00	4.3%	19.1%	3.7%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00	4.3%	19.1%	3.7%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00	4.3%	19.1%	3.7%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00	3.0%	19.1%	3.7%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00	3.0%	19.1%	3.7%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-16T03:36:10+00:00	3.0%	19.1%	3.7%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	3.0%	19.1%	3.7%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	3.0%	19.1%	8.0%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	3.0%	19.1%	8.0%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	3.0%	19.1%	8.0%	50.6%	15.9%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	9.5%	19.1%	8.0%	7.8%	14.1%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	9.5%	19.1%	8.0%	7.8%	14.1%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	9.5%	19.1%	8.0%	7.8%	14.1%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	9.5%	19.1%	8.0%	7.8%	14.1%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	9.5%	19.1%	8.0%	7.8%	14.1%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	9.5%	7.7%	5.4%	7.8%	14.1%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	9.5%	7.7%	5.4%	7.8%	14.1%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	9.5%	7.7%	5.4%	7.8%	14.1%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	2.8%	7.7%	5.4%	7.8%	14.1%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	2.8%	7.7%	5.4%	7.8%	14.2%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	2.8%	9.3%	5.4%	7.8%	14.2%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	2.8%	9.2%	5.4%	7.8%	14.2%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	2.8%	9.2%	5.4%	13.7%	27.8%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	2.8%	9.2%	3.0%	13.7%	27.8%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	2.8%	9.2%	3.0%	13.7%	27.8%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	2.8%	9.2%	3.0%	13.7%	27.8%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	3.0%	8.5%	27.8%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	3.0%	8.5%	27.8%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	3.0%	8.5%	27.8%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	3.0%	8.5%	27.8%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	3.0%	8.5%	27.8%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	2.7%	3.8%	27.8%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	2.7%	3.8%	27.8%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	2.7%	3.8%	27.8%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	0.9%	9.2%	2.7%	3.8%	27.8%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00	0.9%	9.2%	2.7%	3.8%	27.8%
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	0.9%	9.2%	2.7%	3.8%	27.8%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	0.9%	9.2%	2.7%	3.8%	27.8%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	0.9%	9.2%	2.7%	3.8%	4.6%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	0.9%	9.2%	3.3%	3.8%	4.6%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	0.9%	9.2%	3.3%	3.8%	4.6%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	0.9%	9.2%	3.3%	3.8%	4.6%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	3.3%	3.8%	4.6%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	3.3%	3.8%	4.6%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	3.3%	3.8%	4.6%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	3.3%	3.8%	4.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	11%	73.0°F	7.7°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	74.9°F	5.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	75.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
ICON	5%	72.6°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	70.7°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	74.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	64.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 15 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗