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KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 17 · 09:43 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
9%
ICON
5%
HRES
4%
WN2
3%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 4.6¢Risks 1.15u
VS
AIFSNO 95.4¢Risks 23.85u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.85u · AIFS −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.6% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.8% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.8% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.3% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.3% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.9% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.1% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.5% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.3% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.2% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.3% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.1% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:0009-07 06:0009-15 00:0009-22 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:000.7%————0.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:005.6%—————
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:001.2%————4.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:006.4%—————
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:003.0%————5.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:004.3%————4.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:0040.5%—————
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:0027.0%————3.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:0063.6%—————
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:0018.2%————7.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:0018.9%—————
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:003.0%————4.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:009.3%————3.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:001.7%————7.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:002.3%————5.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:002.2%—————
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:000.4%————4.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:0012.1%—————
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:008.8%————10.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:0015.5%—0.0%———
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:0012.4%————13.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:0027.8%—25.8%———
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:004.8%—35.3%——5.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:001.0%—1.7%———
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%———
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:001.3%—41.3%——6.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%—33.9%———
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:000.7%—50.0%0.1%—14.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:000.4%—12.1%———
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:001.7%2.7%28.5%11.3%—6.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:000.3%—2.7%———
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.3%8.4%0.0%1.7%—0.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%—1.0%———
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.7%0.0%6.2%—0.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%2.4%———
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%—0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend11%73.0°F7.7°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble9%74.9°F5.7°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%75.0°F5.1°F2026-09-17 02:00Pending
ICON5%72.6°F5.9°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%70.7°F6.6°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%74.3°F4.5°F2026-09-16 18:00Pending
AIFS Single<1%64.8°F5.0°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 15 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗