KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≤ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Sep 22 · 07:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

30%

29%

<1%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

WN2NO 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.00u · WN2 −54.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	0.0%	28.6%	—	0.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.7%	0.1%	0.4%	—	1.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	0.4%	27.0%	2.9%	—	5.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	3.9%	25.5%	0.4%	—	8.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	20.7%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	18.4%	11.6%	16.8%	—	17.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	19.0%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	20.8%	33.8%	2.2%	—	22.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	27.1%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	33.9%	39.1%	5.8%	—	31.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	50.0%	52.8%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	17.7%	23.2%	2.4%	—	22.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	37.2%	44.0%	—	—	30.8%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	28.5%	35.9%	17.6%	—	22.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	24.5%	62.5%	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	34.1%	74.5%	40.3%	—	28.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	47.8%	83.9%	63.3%	—	24.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	54.6%	77.6%	58.1%	65.9%	43.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	64.1%	69.6%	40.5%	—	39.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	66.9%	75.4%	10.6%	72.4%	43.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	65.1%	62.7%	32.5%	—	36.1%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	55.4%	80.9%	64.4%	68.1%	28.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	72.4%	91.3%	27.6%	—	47.2%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	81.8%	91.1%	48.5%	78.8%	52.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	78.7%	89.5%	66.2%	—	57.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	81.9%	92.9%	36.1%	87.5%	60.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	74.6%	91.4%	64.5%	—	71.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	92%	56.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	63.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	63.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	65.5°F	2.7°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-LE61
Opened Sep 18 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗