KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 22 · 14:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

94%

78%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 88.8¢Risks 88.80u

ICONNO 11.2¢Risks 11.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +11.20u · ICON −11.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	95.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	92.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	90.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	94.0%	—	—	94.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	99.8%	—	—	97.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	96.8%	—	—	99.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	92.8%	—	—	98.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	96.4%	99.6%	90.4%	—	94.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	95.2%	97.4%	94.9%	—	93.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	73.6%	56.1%	67.0%	—	90.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	41.3%	25.5%	69.8%	—	81.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.3%	19.5%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	91.3%	70.0%	90.6%	—	80.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	68.9%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	50.0%	84.4%	98.5%	—	82.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	75.0%	83.4%	—	—	80.4%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	51.8%	11.9%	82.8%	—	77.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	44.3%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	49.0%	9.0%	92.1%	—	82.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	51.0%	13.5%	—	—	78.9%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	35.9%	6.7%	78.8%	—	76.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	38.5%	17.6%	—	—	75.5%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	38.2%	22.1%	97.7%	17.6%	69.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	28.6%	29.6%	36.7%	—	75.1%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	43.0%	88.4%	98.4%	—	85.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	54.8%	56.0%	99.5%	—	90.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	90.0%	87.6%	99.1%	16.6%	93.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	87.2%	98.1%	99.8%	—	94.7%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	86.6%	98.9%	99.8%	52.7%	93.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	70.0%	99.3%	99.5%	—	94.2%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	75.5%	98.1%	99.9%	47.1%	97.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	81.9%	98.5%	100.0%	—	98.5%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	92.3%	99.9%	100.0%	83.9%	99.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	98.9%	99.9%	99.9%	—	99.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	67.1°F	2.5°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	71.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	66.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	65.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	62.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
ICON	78%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 60°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗