KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 22 · 14:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

94%

78%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 88.8¢Risks 88.80u

ICONNO 11.2¢Risks 11.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +11.20u · ICON −11.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T15:18:42+00:00	78.0%	99.8%	99.7%	93.9%	54.1%
2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00	78.0%	99.8%	99.7%	93.9%	54.1%
2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00	78.0%	99.8%	99.7%	93.9%	40.9%
2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00	78.0%	99.8%	99.7%	93.9%	40.9%
2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00	78.0%	99.8%	99.7%	93.9%	40.9%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	78.0%	99.8%	99.7%	93.9%	40.9%
2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00	74.5%	99.8%	99.7%	93.9%	40.9%
2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00	74.5%	99.8%	99.7%	93.9%	40.9%
2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00	74.5%	99.8%	99.7%	93.9%	40.9%
2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00	74.5%	99.8%	99.7%	93.9%	40.9%
2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00	74.5%	99.8%	99.7%	90.8%	40.9%
2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00	74.5%	99.8%	99.7%	90.8%	40.9%
2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00	74.5%	99.8%	99.7%	90.8%	40.9%
2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00	74.5%	99.8%	99.7%	90.8%	40.9%
2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00	79.3%	99.8%	99.7%	90.8%	40.9%
2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00	79.3%	99.8%	99.7%	90.8%	40.9%
2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00	88.8%	97.0%	99.7%	96.3%	37.8%
2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00	88.8%	97.0%	99.7%	96.3%	37.8%
2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00	88.8%	97.0%	99.7%	96.3%	37.8%
2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00	88.8%	97.0%	99.7%	96.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00	88.8%	97.0%	99.7%	96.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00	88.8%	97.0%	99.7%	96.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00	88.8%	97.0%	99.7%	96.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00	89.9%	97.0%	99.7%	97.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00	89.9%	97.0%	99.7%	97.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00	89.9%	97.0%	99.7%	97.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00	89.9%	97.0%	99.7%	97.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00	89.9%	99.9%	99.7%	97.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00	89.9%	99.9%	99.7%	97.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00	89.9%	99.9%	99.7%	97.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	89.9%	99.9%	99.7%	97.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00	93.6%	99.9%	99.7%	97.3%	77.7%
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00	93.6%	99.9%	99.7%	97.3%	77.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	67.1°F	2.5°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	71.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	66.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	65.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	62.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
ICON	78%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 60°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗