KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

35%

33%

17%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 23.7¢Risks 23.70u

AIFSNO 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.30u · AIFS −76.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	36.2%	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	78.0%	—	—	43.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	39.1%	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	22.8%	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	31.1%	63.1%	16.2%	—	25.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	23.7%	33.0%	22.6%	—	18.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.2%	1.0%	2.0%	—	12.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	1.9%	—	4.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.7%	1.4%	8.0%	—	3.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	3.2%	24.8%	—	2.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	2.5%	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	2.0%	—	1.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	4.0%	—	1.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	—	0.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.9%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	4.8%	—	0.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	8.7%	—	0.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	4.3%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%	9.8%	—	0.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.9%	6.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	2.3%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	4.4%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	6.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.2%	4.4%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	1.6%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	71.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	69.9°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	70.5°F	4.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	66.0°F	6.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	62.2°F	5.3°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗