KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

35%

33%

17%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 23.7¢Risks 23.70u

AIFSNO 76.3¢Risks 76.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +76.30u · AIFS −76.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	18.8%	67.0%	47.5%	12.9%	55.3%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	18.8%	67.0%	47.5%	12.9%	55.3%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	18.8%	67.0%	47.5%	12.9%	45.9%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	18.8%	67.0%	45.0%	12.9%	45.9%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	18.8%	67.0%	45.0%	12.9%	45.9%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	18.8%	67.0%	45.0%	12.9%	45.9%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	2.0%	67.0%	45.0%	12.9%	45.9%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	2.0%	67.0%	45.0%	12.9%	45.9%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	2.0%	67.0%	45.0%	12.9%	45.9%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	2.0%	67.0%	45.0%	12.9%	45.9%
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00	2.0%	67.0%	45.0%	22.1%	45.9%
2026-09-17T11:14:01+00:00	2.0%	31.4%	42.9%	22.1%	45.9%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	2.0%	31.4%	42.9%	22.1%	45.9%
2026-09-17T12:44:16+00:00	2.0%	31.4%	42.9%	22.1%	45.9%
2026-09-17T13:29:21+00:00	0.7%	31.4%	42.9%	22.1%	45.9%
2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00	0.7%	31.3%	42.9%	22.1%	45.9%
2026-09-17T15:00:44+00:00	0.7%	33.3%	42.9%	22.1%	45.9%
2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00	0.7%	33.3%	42.9%	22.1%	45.9%
2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00	0.7%	33.3%	42.9%	22.1%	17.0%
2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00	0.7%	33.3%	31.1%	22.1%	17.0%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	0.7%	33.3%	31.1%	22.1%	17.0%
2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00	0.7%	33.3%	31.1%	22.1%	17.0%
2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00	4.6%	33.3%	31.1%	22.1%	17.0%
2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00	4.6%	33.3%	31.1%	22.1%	17.0%
2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00	4.6%	33.3%	31.1%	22.1%	17.0%
2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00	4.6%	33.3%	31.1%	22.1%	17.0%
2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00	4.6%	33.3%	31.1%	34.7%	17.0%
2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00	4.6%	33.3%	44.7%	34.7%	17.0%
2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00	4.6%	33.3%	44.7%	34.7%	17.0%
2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00	4.6%	33.3%	44.7%	34.7%	17.0%
2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00	2.7%	33.3%	44.7%	34.7%	17.0%
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00	2.7%	33.3%	44.7%	34.7%	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	71.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	69.9°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	70.5°F	4.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	66.0°F	6.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	62.2°F	5.3°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗