KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Sep 16 · 22:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

47%

41%

20%

14%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.55u

HRESNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.45u · HRES −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	25.9%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	67.6%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	27.3%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	13.9%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	19.9%	49.3%	9.0%	—	15.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	14.0%	21.0%	13.2%	—	10.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	0.3%	0.8%	—	6.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%	—	1.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.8%	0.4%	3.4%	—	1.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	13.1%	—	0.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.8%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	—	0.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	—	0.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.5%	—	0.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	2.6%	—	0.1%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	75.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	75.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	73.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	73.4°F	4.8°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	69.8°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	65.5°F	8.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗