KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 17 · 02:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

43%

24%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

HRESNO 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.10u · HRES −74.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	21.4%	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	61.8%	—	—	26.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	22.1%	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	10.5%	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	15.3%	42.3%	6.5%	—	11.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.3%	16.1%	9.6%	—	7.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	0.2%	0.4%	—	4.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	1.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	0.2%	2.1%	—	0.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	9.0%	—	0.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	5.4°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	75.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	73.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	72.2°F	4.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	67.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	65.5°F	6.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE76
Opened Sep 16 · 23:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 76°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗