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KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 17 · 02:12 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
46%
ICON
43%
WN2
24%
AIFS
8%
HRES
5%
Consensus
22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.90u
VS
HRESNO 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.10u · HRES −74.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.5% · 2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.5% · 2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.5% · 2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.5% · 2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.5% · 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00IFS HRES: 5.3% · 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00ICON: 43.1% · 2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00ICON: 43.1% · 2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00ICON: 43.1% · 2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00ICON: 43.1% · 2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00ICON: 43.1% · 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:0009-16 23:1109-17 00:4109-17 02:12
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:0015.6%46.5%24.5%5.3%43.1%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:0015.6%46.5%24.5%5.3%43.1%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:0015.6%46.5%24.5%5.3%43.1%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:007.7%46.5%24.5%5.3%43.1%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:007.7%46.5%24.5%5.3%43.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend54%76.0°F5.4°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%75.0°F5.7°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
ICON43%73.8°F9.8°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 224%72.2°F4.8°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single8%67.6°F5.5°F2026-09-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES5%65.5°F6.2°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE76
Opened Sep 16 · 23:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 76°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗