KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

95%

78%

76%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 86.9¢Risks 86.85u

HRESNO 13.1¢Risks 13.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +13.15u · HRES −13.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	84.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	—	—	—	92.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	97.3%	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	76.7%	77.2%	87.9%	—	—	83.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	81.6%	66.4%	34.9%	—	78.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	33.7%	81.1%	90.7%	—	72.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	83.1%	45.4%	86.2%	—	71.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	87.3%	83.2%	77.6%	—	71.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	13.9%	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	45.8%	83.2%	64.7%	—	66.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	63.4%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	33.0%	1.4%	81.6%	—	68.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	54.5%	13.5%	—	—	66.6%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	74.1%	77.0%	73.4%	—	65.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	61.2%	70.8%	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	76.0%	80.3%	82.9%	—	68.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	76.6%	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	74.1%	85.5%	85.5%	—	71.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	77.2%	83.7%	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	76.2%	84.5%	75.3%	58.7%	73.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	74.2%	72.4%	12.9%	—	71.4%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	70.0%	84.7%	87.9%	53.5%	71.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	78.4%	89.2%	88.0%	—	72.7%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	76.4%	87.6%	91.0%	51.2%	74.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	68.7%	91.3%	90.2%	—	77.2%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	77.0%	91.6%	92.1%	72.7%	78.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	89.6%	95.3%	92.9%	—	80.9%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	93.2%	96.0%	94.1%	77.8%	84.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	93.5%	94.4%	95.6%	—	87.2%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	94.8%	96.6%	94.8%	73.7%	88.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	98.1%	97.2%	96.9%	—	92.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	66.5°F	2.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	68.7°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
ICON	78%	64.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	64.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗