KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

95%

78%

76%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 86.9¢Risks 86.85u

HRESNO 13.1¢Risks 13.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +13.15u · HRES −13.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T15:18:42+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	97.6%	73.0%	45.0%
2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	97.6%	73.0%	45.0%
2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	97.6%	73.0%	81.2%
2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	97.6%	73.0%	81.2%
2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	97.6%	73.0%	81.2%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	97.6%	73.0%	81.2%
2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00	93.3%	99.6%	97.6%	73.0%	81.2%
2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00	93.3%	99.6%	97.6%	73.0%	81.2%
2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00	93.3%	99.6%	97.6%	73.0%	81.2%
2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00	93.3%	99.6%	97.6%	73.0%	81.2%
2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00	93.3%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	81.2%
2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00	93.3%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	81.2%
2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00	93.3%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	81.2%
2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00	93.3%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	81.2%
2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00	94.1%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	81.2%
2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00	94.1%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	81.2%
2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00	94.1%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	81.2%
2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00	94.1%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	81.2%
2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00	94.1%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	80.9%
2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00	94.1%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	80.9%
2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00	94.1%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	80.9%
2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00	94.1%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	80.9%
2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00	94.4%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	80.9%
2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00	94.4%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	80.9%
2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00	94.4%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	80.9%
2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00	94.4%	99.6%	97.6%	75.6%	80.9%
2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00	94.4%	99.6%	97.6%	71.7%	80.9%
2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00	94.4%	99.5%	97.6%	71.7%	80.9%
2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00	94.4%	99.5%	97.6%	71.7%	80.9%
2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00	94.4%	99.5%	97.6%	71.7%	80.9%
2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00	94.2%	99.4%	97.6%	71.7%	80.9%
2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00	94.2%	99.4%	97.6%	71.7%	80.9%
2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00	94.2%	97.6%	97.6%	71.7%	80.9%
2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00	94.2%	97.6%	97.6%	71.7%	80.9%
2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00	94.2%	97.6%	97.6%	71.7%	78.0%
2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00	94.2%	97.6%	97.6%	71.7%	78.0%
2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00	94.2%	97.6%	97.6%	71.7%	78.0%
2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00	94.2%	97.6%	97.6%	71.7%	78.0%
2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00	94.7%	97.6%	97.6%	76.1%	78.0%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	94.7%	97.6%	97.6%	76.1%	78.0%
2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00	94.7%	97.6%	97.6%	76.1%	78.0%
2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00	94.7%	97.6%	97.6%	76.1%	78.0%
2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00	94.7%	97.6%	97.6%	76.1%	78.0%
2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00	94.7%	97.6%	97.6%	76.1%	78.0%
2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00	94.7%	97.6%	97.6%	76.1%	78.0%
2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00	94.7%	97.6%	97.6%	76.1%	78.0%
2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00	95.0%	97.6%	97.6%	76.1%	78.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	66.5°F	2.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	68.7°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
ICON	78%	64.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	64.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-21 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗