KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

71%

50%

38%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

ICONNO 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.10u · ICON −34.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	85.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	92.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	94.5%	—	—	85.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	65.8%	79.7%	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	70.8%	52.8%	23.0%	—	67.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	21.5%	69.6%	83.0%	—	59.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	71.7%	30.9%	76.1%	—	57.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	77.0%	71.2%	64.1%	—	56.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	6.8%	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	30.0%	70.7%	48.3%	—	50.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	46.6%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	19.0%	0.4%	67.8%	—	51.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	36.8%	6.0%	—	—	49.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	57.3%	60.9%	56.4%	—	47.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	42.5%	52.8%	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	58.7%	64.3%	67.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	58.9%	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	55.1%	70.6%	70.6%	—	52.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	58.4%	67.4%	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	56.5%	67.9%	55.5%	37.1%	53.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	53.4%	51.1%	4.5%	—	50.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	47.7%	66.9%	72.0%	31.0%	48.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	57.2%	73.7%	71.7%	—	50.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	53.7%	70.2%	76.4%	27.6%	51.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	43.6%	76.2%	74.1%	—	53.9%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	52.7%	76.0%	77.0%	47.3%	54.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	71.2%	83.6%	77.9%	—	56.9%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	77.8%	84.6%	79.8%	51.4%	61.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	77.6%	79.8%	82.8%	—	64.8%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	79.7%	84.8%	79.7%	43.7%	65.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	89.3%	85.9%	85.0%	—	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	68.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	65.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	63.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗