KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

71%

50%

38%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

ICONNO 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.10u · ICON −34.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T02:11:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T03:08:50+00:00	63.2%	91.5%	94.2%	54.2%	81.8%
2026-09-19T03:54:12+00:00	63.2%	91.5%	94.2%	54.2%	81.8%
2026-09-19T04:39:18+00:00	63.2%	91.5%	94.2%	54.2%	84.7%
2026-09-19T05:24:23+00:00	63.2%	91.5%	94.2%	54.2%	84.7%
2026-09-19T06:09:27+00:00	63.2%	91.5%	94.2%	54.2%	84.7%
2026-09-19T06:54:36+00:00	63.2%	91.5%	94.2%	54.2%	84.7%
2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00	87.1%	91.5%	94.2%	55.4%	84.7%
2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00	87.1%	91.5%	94.2%	55.4%	84.7%
2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00	87.1%	91.5%	94.2%	55.4%	84.7%
2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00	87.1%	91.5%	94.2%	55.4%	84.7%
2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00	87.1%	91.5%	94.2%	55.4%	84.7%
2026-09-19T11:25:52+00:00	87.1%	95.8%	94.2%	55.4%	84.7%
2026-09-19T12:11:02+00:00	87.1%	95.8%	94.2%	55.4%	84.7%
2026-09-19T12:56:07+00:00	87.1%	95.8%	94.2%	55.4%	84.7%
2026-09-19T13:41:13+00:00	87.9%	95.8%	94.2%	55.4%	84.7%
2026-09-19T14:27:49+00:00	87.9%	95.8%	94.2%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-09-19T15:12:57+00:00	87.9%	96.4%	94.2%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00	87.9%	96.4%	94.2%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00	87.9%	96.4%	94.2%	55.5%	48.6%
2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00	87.9%	96.4%	94.2%	55.5%	48.6%
2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00	87.9%	96.4%	94.2%	55.5%	48.6%
2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00	87.9%	96.4%	94.2%	55.5%	48.6%
2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00	86.7%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00	86.7%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00	86.7%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00	86.7%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:00	86.7%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00	86.7%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00	86.7%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00	86.7%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00	89.5%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00	89.5%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-20T03:14:43+00:00	89.5%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-20T04:00:02+00:00	89.5%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	48.6%
2026-09-20T04:45:07+00:00	89.5%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	29.2%
2026-09-20T05:30:13+00:00	89.5%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	29.2%
2026-09-20T06:15:18+00:00	89.5%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	29.2%
2026-09-20T07:00:26+00:00	89.5%	96.4%	94.2%	64.1%	29.2%
2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00	90.8%	96.4%	94.2%	58.6%	29.2%
2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00	90.8%	96.4%	94.2%	58.6%	29.2%
2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00	90.8%	96.4%	94.2%	58.6%	29.2%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	90.8%	96.4%	94.2%	58.6%	29.2%
2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00	90.8%	96.4%	94.2%	58.6%	29.2%
2026-09-20T11:31:31+00:00	90.8%	97.3%	94.2%	58.6%	29.2%
2026-09-20T12:16:51+00:00	90.8%	97.3%	94.2%	58.6%	29.2%
2026-09-20T13:01:56+00:00	90.8%	97.3%	94.2%	58.6%	29.2%
2026-09-20T13:47:01+00:00	88.5%	97.3%	94.2%	58.6%	29.2%
2026-09-20T14:33:32+00:00	88.5%	97.3%	94.1%	58.6%	29.2%
2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00	88.2%	88.2%	94.0%	60.5%	60.1%
2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00	88.2%	88.2%	94.0%	60.5%	60.1%
2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00	88.2%	88.2%	94.0%	60.5%	60.1%
2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00	88.2%	88.2%	94.0%	60.5%	51.1%
2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00	88.2%	88.2%	94.0%	60.5%	51.1%
2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00	88.2%	88.2%	94.0%	60.5%	51.1%
2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00	88.2%	88.2%	94.0%	60.5%	51.1%
2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00	88.8%	88.2%	94.0%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00	88.8%	88.2%	94.0%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00	88.8%	88.2%	94.0%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00	88.8%	88.2%	94.0%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00	88.8%	94.4%	94.0%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00	88.8%	94.4%	94.0%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00	88.8%	94.4%	94.0%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	88.8%	94.4%	94.0%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00	88.8%	94.3%	93.8%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00	88.8%	94.3%	93.8%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T15:32:20+00:00	88.8%	87.7%	93.8%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T16:17:38+00:00	88.8%	87.7%	93.8%	66.9%	51.1%
2026-09-22T17:02:44+00:00	88.8%	87.7%	93.8%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-22T17:47:50+00:00	88.8%	87.7%	93.8%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-22T18:32:55+00:00	88.8%	87.7%	93.8%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-22T19:18:04+00:00	88.8%	87.7%	93.8%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-22T20:03:09+00:00	89.7%	87.7%	93.8%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-22T20:48:14+00:00	89.7%	87.7%	93.8%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-22T21:33:20+00:00	89.7%	87.7%	93.8%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-22T22:18:28+00:00	89.7%	87.7%	93.8%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-22T23:03:37+00:00	89.7%	87.7%	95.3%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-22T23:48:43+00:00	89.7%	87.7%	95.3%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-23T00:33:49+00:00	89.7%	87.7%	95.3%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-23T01:18:57+00:00	89.7%	87.7%	95.3%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00	90.5%	87.7%	95.3%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-23T02:49:13+00:00	90.5%	87.7%	95.3%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-23T03:34:33+00:00	90.5%	87.7%	95.3%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-23T04:19:43+00:00	90.5%	87.7%	95.3%	66.9%	42.1%
2026-09-23T05:04:48+00:00	90.5%	87.7%	95.3%	62.4%	37.8%
2026-09-23T05:50:03+00:00	90.5%	87.7%	95.3%	62.4%	37.8%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	90.5%	87.7%	95.3%	62.4%	37.8%
2026-09-23T07:20:17+00:00	90.5%	87.7%	95.3%	62.4%	37.8%
2026-09-23T08:05:27+00:00	91.6%	87.7%	95.3%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	91.6%	87.7%	95.3%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T09:36:15+00:00	91.6%	87.7%	95.3%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T10:21:19+00:00	91.6%	87.7%	95.3%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T11:06:25+00:00	91.6%	87.6%	95.0%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T11:51:38+00:00	91.6%	87.6%	95.0%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T12:36:42+00:00	91.6%	87.6%	95.0%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T13:21:48+00:00	90.8%	87.6%	95.0%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T14:09:03+00:00	90.8%	87.4%	95.0%	73.0%	38.8%
2026-09-23T14:54:11+00:00	90.8%	50.0%	95.0%	73.0%	38.8%
2026-09-23T15:39:28+00:00	90.8%	50.0%	95.0%	73.0%	38.8%
2026-09-23T16:24:36+00:00	90.8%	50.0%	95.0%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T17:09:45+00:00	90.8%	50.0%	94.0%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T17:54:54+00:00	90.8%	50.0%	94.0%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T18:39:59+00:00	90.8%	50.0%	94.0%	73.0%	37.8%
2026-09-23T19:25:10+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	94.0%	71.2%	37.8%
2026-09-23T20:10:18+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	94.0%	71.2%	37.8%
2026-09-23T20:55:23+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	94.0%	71.2%	37.8%
2026-09-23T21:40:28+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	94.0%	71.2%	37.8%
2026-09-23T22:25:35+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	94.0%	71.2%	37.8%
2026-09-23T23:10:41+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	94.0%	71.2%	37.8%
2026-09-23T23:55:46+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	94.0%	71.2%	37.8%
2026-09-24T00:40:52+00:00	91.2%	50.0%	94.0%	71.2%	37.8%
2026-09-24T01:26:04+00:00	91.6%	50.0%	94.0%	71.2%	37.8%
2026-09-24T02:11:11+00:00	91.6%	50.0%	94.0%	71.2%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	68.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	65.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	63.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗