KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Sep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

81%

51%

27%

24%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

EPSNO 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.05u · EPS −46.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	—	87.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	—	—	—	79.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	89.9%	—	—	76.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	52.7%	68.8%	—	—	61.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	57.7%	38.9%	13.7%	—	53.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	12.4%	55.8%	72.2%	—	44.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	57.6%	18.9%	62.7%	—	42.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	63.3%	56.4%	48.4%	—	40.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	2.9%	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	17.3%	55.0%	32.2%	—	33.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.3%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	9.4%	0.1%	50.9%	—	34.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	21.5%	2.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	39.1%	42.7%	38.2%	—	29.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	25.3%	34.3%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	39.4%	45.1%	49.0%	—	31.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	39.1%	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	34.9%	51.0%	51.0%	—	32.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	37.5%	46.8%	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	35.1%	46.7%	34.1%	19.0%	32.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	31.5%	29.6%	1.2%	—	28.6%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	26.0%	44.2%	50.0%	14.0%	27.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	33.6%	51.2%	48.8%	—	27.3%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	29.8%	46.3%	53.7%	11.2%	27.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	20.9%	52.6%	50.0%	—	29.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	27.3%	51.3%	52.7%	23.0%	28.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	44.4%	61.0%	52.8%	—	30.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	51.4%	61.4%	54.3%	24.5%	33.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	53.0%	57.5%	—	35.2%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	51.6%	59.4%	51.6%	17.1%	34.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	66.1%	59.8%	58.2%	—	41.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	68.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	65.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
ICON	27%	63.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	63.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗