KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Sep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

81%

51%

27%

24%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

EPSNO 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.05u · EPS −46.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T06:42:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00	52.2%	78.8%	87.6%	43.4%	32.5%
2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00	52.2%	78.8%	87.6%	43.4%	32.5%
2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00	52.2%	78.8%	87.6%	43.4%	73.1%
2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00	52.2%	78.8%	87.6%	43.4%	73.1%
2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00	52.2%	78.8%	87.6%	43.4%	73.1%
2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00	52.2%	78.8%	87.6%	43.4%	73.1%
2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00	49.3%	78.8%	87.6%	43.4%	73.1%
2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00	49.3%	78.8%	87.6%	43.4%	73.1%
2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00	49.3%	78.8%	87.6%	43.4%	73.1%
2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00	49.3%	78.8%	87.6%	43.4%	73.1%
2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00	49.3%	78.8%	87.6%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00	49.3%	78.8%	87.6%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00	49.3%	78.8%	87.6%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00	49.3%	78.8%	87.6%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00	48.5%	78.8%	87.6%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00	48.5%	78.8%	87.6%	42.2%	73.1%
2026-09-24T02:56:19+00:00	81.2%	23.8%	83.4%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	81.2%	23.8%	83.4%	51.1%	19.0%
2026-09-24T04:26:58+00:00	81.2%	23.8%	83.4%	51.1%	27.0%
2026-09-24T05:12:03+00:00	81.2%	23.8%	84.1%	51.1%	27.0%
2026-09-24T05:57:11+00:00	81.2%	23.8%	84.1%	51.1%	27.0%
2026-09-24T06:42:24+00:00	81.2%	23.8%	84.1%	51.1%	27.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	68.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	65.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
ICON	27%	63.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	63.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗